Nigel Farage has seen a downturn in net favourability despite Reform UK continuing to surge in the polls, new research has found.
Reform currently sits around the 28 per cent mark in most voting intention polls, dispelling murmurs they had hit their ceiling.
Couple that with ongoing woes in No10, headlined with the Peter Mandelson saga and supported by three top resignations and an investigation launched into the conduct of the Keir Starmer-linked think tank Labour Together for their probe into journalists; Reform’s position at the top won’t surprise anyone.
Mr Farage’s Party will announce its “shadow cabinet” on Tuesday in an attempt to firmly position itself as the “true opposition to Labour” and show he is willing to delegate responsibilities and form a credible Government.
But despite this, new polls have suggested Mr Farage has seen his personal favourability dip from a high of 32 per cent in August 2025 to 27 per cent now. 64 per cent view him unfavourably, up from 59 per cent in June 2025.
Adam Drummond, Head of Quantitative Research at Public First, told GB News: “There’s an ongoing question about what Reform’s ceiling is and if that’s different to Nigel Farage’s.
“Ultimately, the Reform leader has never been a figure with more admirers than detractors but a world in which the Labour Government is toxically unpopular and the Tories are tainted by failures in office, it didn’t matter.
“If your ceiling is about 30 per cent, then it only matters if any of your opponents can get to more than that.”
Nigel Farage has seen a downturn in net favourability despite Reform UK continuing to surge in the polls, new research has found
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What may come as more astonishing is Sir Keir’s improvements. Despite recent calls for him to resign, 69 per cent of people now view the PM negatively, down from 75 per cent in January.
A growing 22 per cent hold a favourable view of the Labour leader up from 18 per cent last month, YouGov found.
“Keir Starmer’s slight recovery seems to have been from some Labour voters moving from the “neither” box to the “favourable” one, probably as a reaction against the idea that the Mandelson scandal necessitates removing a Prime Minister,” Mr Drummond added.
“Ultimately, it will only turn into a trend if the Government is able to start delivering for the public and tell a convincing story as it does so.”
Sir Keir Starmer has enjoyed a surprise upturn in favourability despite turmoil at No10
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James Crouch, associate director at Opinium, said the Mandelson saga in particular has had a “noticeable” and “surprising” impact on political moods.
“Among those opposing the Government, Kemi Badenoch’s handling of the controversy is seen as the strongest response, reinforcing the sense that she is beginning to assert herself more clearly as Leader of the Opposition,” he told GB News.
“In that sense, it may be taking some of the limelight away from Nigel Farage.
“That said, voting intention doesn’t shift overnight. It reflects a cumulative judgement built up over time, and it tends to move far more slowly than short-term shifts in leader approval.
“For Keir Starmer, even if there has been a slight softening in his unpopularity, the striking feature is just how consistently low his ratings remain and how vulnerable it makes him during crises such as over the appointment of Peter Mandelson.
“Whether they sit in the mid, low or high net minus 40s, that still places him at levels comparable to [Theresa] May, [Boris] Johnson and [Rishi] Sunak at the points they left office.”