Andy Burnham is risking everything by goading Reform UK into a by-election showdown in Makerfield.
The Greater Manchester Mayor, who held the nearby seat of Leigh from 2001 to 2017, is hoping his Teflon local reputation will propel him back to Parliament.
The 56-year-old hoovered up almost two-thirds of votes across Greater Manchester when he romped to victory in 2024.
Mr Burnham’s support vastly outstripped Labour’s vote share in the 2024 General Election, with Josh Simons only securing Makerfield with a majority of 5,399 votes.
Makerfield, which has returned a Labour MP since its creation in 1983, is now poised to pivot to Reform UK.
Nigel Farage is searching for a candidate to contest the Red Wall seat, with nominations closing as early as Sunday.
The seat looks incredibly fruitful for Reform UK, particularly when compared to Gorton & Denton.
Almost two-thirds of voters backed Brexit in 2016, Ukip performed strongly in the area in 2015 and polls consistently suggest it could fall into Mr Farage’s lap.
Andy Burnham is expected to stand in Makerfield
|
PA
Last week’s ward-by-ward results in the area will also send shivers down Mr Burnham’s spine.
While Mr Simons secured 45 per cent of the vote in Makerfield in 2024, Reform UK’s vote share surged to 50.1 per cent across the eight wards contested on May 7.
Labour’s vote share dropped to as low as 26.7 per cent, although Mr Burnham is not expected to face a squeeze from the Green Party.
Makerfield, in any other circumstance, would even look more favourable to Reform UK than Runcorn & Helsby did last year.
“We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it,” Mr Farage said.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is targeting Makerfield
|
PA
However, Mr Burnham’s inclusion will likely make the contest wholly unpredictable.
There is no quantitative data on how Mr Burnham’s candidacy could siphon off votes from both Reform UK and the Green Party.
Mr Burnham, dubbed the “King of the North”, could pick up an extra few thousand votes.
Modelling by Britain Elects found Mr Burnham could receive 39 per cent in Makerfield, edging out Reform UK on 36 per cent.
Sir Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham have exchanged barbs ahead of the Labour Party Conference | PA
Victory for Mr Burnham would also boost the Greater Manchester Mayor’s stock should he find himself able to stand in a Labour leadership contest.
Polling by Survation shows Mr Burnham is already more popular than Sir Keir Starmer among Labour’s 309,000 members.
However, Labour MPs would face a more interesting question should Mr Burnham see off the threat from Reform UK.
With Labour being battered last week and Sir Keir’s slump in the polls deepening, a triumph for Mr Burnham would stick out as completely at odds with the national picture.
Nigel Farage became leader of Reform UK on June 4 2024 | GETTY
Reform UK’s internal polling suggests Labour could lose 110 seats in a turquoise tsunami, while the Greens would only snatch 24 seats.
Labour MPs, who need not worry about backing a horse in a leadership contest just yet, will wonder who is best-placed to see off the rise of Reform UK.
If Mr Burnham pulls off his Westminster comeback, that question becomes a no-brainer.
And if he doesn’t, the biggest gamble of Mr Burnham’s political career has gone up in smoke.