British households are being warned to prepare for rising grocery bills as escalating tensions involving Iran disrupt global food supply chains.
Industry analysts say the shock could represent the most significant pressure on supermarket prices since the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Experts have cautioned that an “inflationary wave” could reach British shoppers within weeks as supply costs begin to climb.
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), told The Times that while increases may not reach previous record levels, prices are expected to peak during the autumn.
The disruption follows attacks by Iranian forces on shipping vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow waterway carries around one-fifth of global oil supplies and roughly a third of the world’s fertiliser shipments.
Rising energy and fertiliser costs linked to the disruption are expected to filter through supply chains and affect supermarket prices.
Products such as green beans from Kenya and asparagus from Peru are among the items expected to increase in price first.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping routes, and disruption to vessels travelling through the area is already affecting international trade.
British households are being warned to prepare for rising grocery bills
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At the same time, British farmers are facing sharply higher gas costs required to heat greenhouses used for growing fruit and vegetables.
Soil Association has warned that UK agriculture remains “dangerously vulnerable” to global supply shocks.
The UK imports around 80 per cent of its fruit and more than half of its vegetables from abroad.
This reliance on imports leaves consumers particularly exposed when international supply routes are disrupted.
Consumers could first notice higher prices on produce imported by air from overseas markets
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Within the next six weeks, everyday produce including tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers could rise by around 15 per cent.
Dairy products are also expected to face pressure because production relies on several expensive inputs.
Farmers must pay for fertiliser, animal feed, fuel and energy before producing milk.
Bread could also become more costly if fertiliser prices continue to rise, with some growers questioning whether planting crops remains economically viable.
James Meadway, economist and co-director of the Verdant, said the most significant effects may not appear immediately.
He warned the worst of the disruption could emerge in six to nine months.
This could result in reduced availability and higher prices in shops during the Christmas period.
Gareth Morgan, head of farming policy at the Soil Association, said: “It’s deeply concerning that we are one of the least food self-sufficient countries in Europe.”
He added: “The invasion of Ukraine showed how dependent our farming system is on fertilisers made with increasingly expensive gas.
“Now we are looking at more shocks and more risk.”
Concerns have also been raised that some suppliers could attempt to increase prices beyond genuine cost rises during the disruption.
The Competition and Markets Authority said it would monitor the situation closely.
A spokesman for the regulator said: “It’s especially important in these circumstances that price rises reflect genuine cost increases.”
“Timely, accurate and transparent pricing information must be available and suppliers must treat customers fairly.”
The authority confirmed it would work with Government officials to monitor affected sectors, including fertiliser, red diesel, groceries and travel.