Reform UK suffered its worst night since the 2024 general election and faces a “very hard” path to power, a top pollster has warned.
Andy Burnham stormed to victory in the Makerfield by-election, beating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes.
Luke Tryl, the UK director of pollster More in Common, said last night’s by-election was a very difficult result for Nigel Farage’s party.
He pointed out there was “barely any” increase in the party’s vote share in Makerfield.
In the end, Labour cruised to win in a seat that was one of Reform’s best second-places in 2024.
Restore Britain, meanwhile, took home seven per cent of the vote in Makerfield.
Party leader Rupert Lowe said the result proved Restore was “here to stay”.
“A huge step forward for our party tonight,” he added.
Robert Kenyon lost the Makerfield by-election by over 9,000 votes, which a top pollster said was a difficult result
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In the by-election for the constituency of Aberdeen South, Tory Douglas Lumsden won a contest which was described as a referendum on North Sea oil.
Mr Tryl said the Tories had showed “proof of life and even momentum in the battle for the right” by winning the seat.
The pollster said if results tonight were “replicated elsewhere in fragmented politics, Reform’s path to government becomes very, very hard”.
The Conservatives claimed Reform UK’s Makerfield result was “disastrous” for Mr Farage’s party, despite receiving just over two per cent of the vote themselves.
Nigel Farage’s party took its second highest vote share in a Westminster by-election as he met with his candidate ahead of the result
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A party spokesman said: “There is no disguising the fact that this is a disastrous result for Reform.
“Makerfield was one of their top target seats anywhere in the country, yet despite throwing everything at it, they have failed to win.”
Their candidate Michael Winstanley won 2.2 per cent of the vote – the second lowest share the vote at a Westminster-by-election since the Second World War.
Their lowest ever was just a few months earlier at February’s Gorton and Denton by-election, where the Tories won 1.9 per cent of the vote.
Rupert Lowe said tonight’s result in Makerfield was ‘a huge step forward’ for Restore Britain
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But Mr Kenyon’s vote share of 35.4 per cent was Reform’s second-best performance at a Westminster by-election, just behind their result in Runcorn and Helsby, won by Sarah Pochin with 38.7 per cent of the vote.
The Conservatives were also able to take council seats from Reform UK in two Essex councils.
Reform UK saw its vote share drop by 15.3 percentage points in a seat in Reform UK-run Essex County Council.
At Rochford District Council, also a Reform heartland, the party experienced a 14.9 point loss.
Shadow Local Government Secretary James Cleverly crowed: “When people see what Reform is like in office, they change their minds about Reform.”
Despite the large win for the newly-elected Makerfield MP, Labour’s vote share plunged in every other by-elections across the nation last night.
In both Westminster elections in Scotland, Labour suffered near-20 point losses.
In Aberdeen South, Labour had a 19.4 point drop and in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the party had a 18.33 point drop.
Labour’s losses also included a 14.4 point drop in a Wrexham council seat and a near 15 point loss in a Hillington council seat.
Even in the sole ward that Labour won, Moorside in Bury Council, the party had a 4.5 point drop in vote share.