People are “wrong to dance on Reform’s grave”, because Nigel Farage’s party is yet to peak, an election expert has told GB News.
In Westminster, rumours continue to spread about the Reform UK chief, with SW1 rustling up claims that the party has already hit its polling peak.
But political strategist James Frayne has binned off the rumours, telling GB News’ Martin Daubney his logic is two-fold.
He said: “The first thing is to look at what might happen in the immediate term. And it’s true that the form of dipped in the polls just very slightly over the course of the last few months.
“It’s also true that they were expected, I think, probably wrongly, to have won a couple of by-elections. One in Caerphilly, one in a council election in Hendon.
“There’s obviously also been various stories swirling around about Nigel Farage and indeed more people over the course of the last few days.”
As a result, people have started to suggest that Reform has hit its ceiling of polling around 30 per cent. However, Mr Frayne noted that the party has refused to dip in the polls, despite negative press.
He continued: “Secondly, there’s an awful lot of stories that are going around at the moment, which really played to Reform and what they’ve been saying over the course of the last few years, particularly over things like illegal immigration and crime more generally.
The Conservative strategist argued Reform UK is yet to hit its peak
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“There is so much stuff happening at the moment that backs what Reform is saying, that it’s pretty unlikely that they are just going to drop off the cliff over the course of the next few months.
“I don’t see them dropping any time soon.”
To go one further, Mr Frayne predicted that Reform’s success could rise further, although he clarified that he was not projecting a 40 per cent win.
He explained: “What I am saying, though, is that those people who are dancing on Reform’s grave, suggesting that they’ve hit their ceiling at 30, are now dropping, that they are wrong.
Voters might consider voting tactically at the next election, Mr Frayne claimed
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“If you look at the numbers, there’s an awful lot of people, for example, within the Conservative Party, maybe around a quarter that are planning to vote for the Conservatives, but view Nigel Farage very positively.”
The party will benefit from a few select popular policies, he said, particularly on illegal immigration, asylum, crime and “woke” – even if the voter is “not too keen on Nigel Farage”.
Eventually, the electorate will be “dragged” into the Reform camp, Mr Frayne added, with continued failure from the mainstream parties.
He further suggested that voters, at the next election, will driven to vote tactically, torn between the right wing choices of Reform UK and the Conservatives.
“When people are going to start thinking about tactical voting, they’re going to be starting to think about whether or not a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for a prospective left wing coalition that might pip Reform to the post.
“So at some point, you could imagine vast numbers of Tories saying, you know what?
“The Tories aren’t going to win. Let’s just vote for Nigel Farage and get a right wing government into power.”
Mr Frayne’s theory has followed the news that Green Party leader Zack Polanski could be up for uniting with Labour to block Nigel Farage from No10.
Green officials told The i Paper that their party leader’s primary objective is keeping Reform UK out of No10, indicating Mr Polanski is willing to work with other parties, including Labour, to achieve his aim.
The left-wing leader’s allies claim that the ex-hynotherapist said “[he] couldn’t live with [him]self” should Mr Farage win the next General Election.