Nigel Farage’s path to topple Sir Sadiq Khan revolves around a turquoise tsunami in at least 12 out of 32 London boroughs, GB News analysis of new polling has revealed.
Find Out Now’s latest poll suggests Reform UK would pick up 16 seats in the capital, with Labour edging out Mr Farage on 18.
However, Zack Polanski’s Green Party would likely secure a plurality of seats in the capital, surging across liberal-leaning boroughs to snatch 23 constituencies from Labour.
Meanwhile, the Tories would keep hold of nine seats, with the Liberal Democrats losing two and pro-Gaza independent candidates picking up an extra four.
Reform UK is hoping to leave its first mark ahead of the 2028 London Mayoral Election on May 7, with all 32 London boroughs set to take part in the 2026 Local Elections.
Laila Cunningham, who defected from the Tories last year, will lead the operation ahead of her challenge to Sir Sadiq.
She said: “There will be a new sheriff in town, and I’ll be launching an all-out war on crime.”
Mr Farage has also revealed some of the places in London that could be swept up by a turquoise tsunami, singling out Bromley and Bexley earlier this week.
GB News has decided to go one further, mapping 12 boroughs that could prove integral to Reform UK.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage unveiled Laila Cunningham as his candidate to take on Sir Sadiq Khan
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Bromley
In the hotly contested borough of Bromley, Reform UK is hoping to flip the staunch-Conservative council into Mr Farage’s column.
Reform UK had a snapshot of what could soon follow just last year, flipping Bromley Common & Holwood in July’s local by-election bout.
Mr Farage, who was born in the borough back in 1964, is now determined to snatch control of the council.
The Reform UK leader said: “Your Bromleys, your Bexleys. Places like that, in this campaign in London, places that have literally always been Conservative, I genuinely think we’ve got every chance of winning.”
Bexley
It’s a similar story in nearby Bexley. Reform UK first targeted the seat in 2021, following the tragic death of local MP James Brokenshire.
Richard Tice, who later went on to represent Boston & Skegness in the House of Commons, stood on a ticket opposing Ulez.
It was an underestimated triumph for Reform, despite finishing in a distant third.
Mr Tice managed to get the ball rolling on Reform’s surge, with his 6.6 per cent support being the first time the party managed to retain its deposit in a by-election.
Havering
On the other side of the Thames, the borough of Havering is perhaps Mr Farage’s heartland.
With emphatically Brexit-backing residents, Reform UK opted to put Mr Tice up as its candidate in Havering & Redbridge at the London Assembly Election of 2021.
Fast-forward four years, and Reform UK now has a London Assembly member representing the borough at City Hall.
Keith Prince, who first stood as a Tory candidate in 1990, crossed the floor to Reform UK in October last year.
He now sits alongside Reform’s Alex Wilson, who ironically challenged him in Havering & Redbridge in 2024.
Barking & Dagenham
But Barking & Dagenham could see Reform take the fight directly to Sir Sadiq and the Labour Party.
Dagenham & Rainham is likely to be more fruitful for Reform, with the East London seat voting for Brexit and Ukip performing strong in the borough back in 2015.
Local MP Margaret Mullane last year compared the rise of Reform UK to the “far-right” British National Party.
Speaking at a fringe event at the 2025 Labour Party Conference, Ms Mullane said: “I do see Reform as far-right. But what I would say is, you’ve got to be very careful with labels like that.
“Everybody who votes Reform is not the far-right, that’s the difference.
“I do believe that Nigel Farage’s message and what he’s doing does align with the BNP.”
However, Barking could also deliver some returns to Mr Farage, with recent polls predicting a three-way split between Reform, Labour and the Greens.
Hillingdon
Hillingdon has had some famous residents in years gone by. Boris Johnson called Uxbridge & South Ruislip his political home from 2015 to 2023, a blue plaque is situated on Harefield Hospital to mark Sir Alexander Fleming’s stint as regional pathologist, and the iconic British sitcom, The Inbetweeners, was filmed in the borough.
However, there’s every chance a Ulez backlash could help propel Reform UK to claim victory in the borough. Mr Johnson’s former seat could fall into Reform’s column, with Labour’s grip loosening less than two years after winning in West London.
Reform UK is also polling strong in ex-Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell’s home seat of Hayes & Harlington. Despite failing to secure any wards in 2014, Ukip performed strong in the borough, receiving 18 per cent of the vote.
Sadiq Khan intends to seek a fourth term in City Hall | PA
Other potential target boroughs include:
- Waltham Forest
- Sutton
- Croydon
- Hounslow
- Greenwich
- Harrow