Millions could face higher gas bills to cover cost of neighbours switching to heat pumps

Energy regulator Ofgem has warned that as many as seven million homes are expected to leave the gas network by 2034-35, switching instead to low-carbon heating systems.

The mass departure could push a typical annual gas bill from its current level of £865 up to roughly £943, representing a rise of as much as 9.3 per cent.

The Government has set a target of 450,000 heat pump installations per year by 2030 as part of its net zero ambitions. Yet the financial burden of that transition is falling on those who stay on gas.

Industry figures have condemned the arrangement as deeply unjust. Mike Foster, of trade association Energy and Utilities Alliance, told The Telegraph: “For those advocating replacing gas boilers with heat pumps the question they must answer is how to pay for disconnections and decommissioning fairly.

“Simply charging those left on the gas network, likely the least well-off, to pay for the disconnection of those who can afford to buy and run a heat pump is inherently unfair.”

Heat pumps cost an average of £5,408 to install, meaning wealthier households have overwhelmingly been the early adopters.

Grants of up to £9,000 are available through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, but critics say uptake remains skewed towards better-off families.

Shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie accused Labour of “forcing through an expensive energy transition without taking responsibility for who pays the price.”

The mechanism behind the rising costs is straightforward. When a household switches away from gas, it typically contacts its supplier to have the meter removed.

After 12 months, network operators are then legally required to physically disconnect the service pipes for health and safety reasons.

Roughly three-quarters of these disconnection costs are covered by gas network operators, who then recoup the money through charges on remaining customers’ bills.

At present, disconnections add only about £1 a year to the average gas bill. But as millions more homes leave the network under government targets, that figure is set to grow substantially.

Ofgem stated in a recent report: “Under current arrangements and without government intervention, the majority of these costs would be recovered through network charges paid by the remaining gas consumers.”

Both the Government and Ofgem sought to reassure consumers that steps are being taken to manage the transition.

An Ofgem spokesman said the scenarios outlined in its report were illustrative rather than forecasts, adding that the actual impact would depend on how quickly households move away from gas and how costs are distributed.

The regulator stressed that arrangements for leaving the gas network must “keep pace with the wider energy transition and ensure costs are shared fairly.”

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesman said: “As more households move towards low-carbon heating, we are working with the sector to ensure this is done in a fair and affordable way for all.”

The Government also pointed to its plans to remove standing charges from gas bills, giving households greater control over their payments.