A left-wing plot to block Nigel Farage’s march to No10 face three huge hurdles, a polling guru has told GB News.
MPs from progressive parties have been working behind the scenes to establish a tactical voting strategy to thwart Reform’s surge at the next general election.
Similar campaigns were mounted in a bid to stop Brexit in 2019 and boot the Tories out of power in 2024.
Anti-Reform activists felt buoyed by Plaid Cymru’s success in the Caerphilly by-election last October, with Lindsay Whittle winning over thousands of ex-Labour supporters to see off Reform UK by 3,848 votes.
Research by More in Common suggests similar levels of tactical voting could cost Reform UK around 70 seats, leaving Mr Farage short of a majority.
However, Merlin Strategy founder Scarlett Maguire warned those hoping to block Mr Farage face three huge hurdles ahead of 2029.
Speaking to GB News, Ms Maguire said: “The Senedd by-election in Caerphilly clearly shows that there is a substantial appetite for progressive tactical voting to stop Reform, and Nigel Farage should be worried about the implications of that if replicated across the UK.
“However, there are some caveats. Firstly, it will be harder to rally a progressive tactical vote behind an unpopular Government and a Prime Minister as disliked as Keir Starmer is by those on the left and the right.
“Secondly, if the election boils down to a head-to-head between Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage, we could also expect some sort of tactical vote on the right – although not all Conservatives would stomach this.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage could lose a chunk of seats due to tactical voting
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“Finally, and potentially most importantly, with the polls now a five-way fight, it is going to be very hard to work out who is best to defeat Reform in each constituency.
“This could make the practicalities of tactical voting much messier than many at the moment are anticipating.”
Progressive parties have already found it challenging to decide which candidate is best-placed to take on Reform in polls held since the 2024 General Election.
Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru and Green Party have all claimed to be the self-appointed opposition to Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle won the election with 15,961 votes | PA
The fragmentation on the left almost proved catastrophic in the Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Holyrood by-election.
Labour, the SNP and Reform UK ended up securing a similar proportion of the vote, leaving just 1,471 ballots separating first and third place.
Meanwhile, polling firms have struggled to consistently show which party could secure the most progressive votes at Reform UK’s expense.
A similar problem has plagued progressive parties in other elections, with the Liberal Democrats and Labour both campaigning as the main challengers to the Tories in 2019 based on different data.
Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey could struggle to stop Nigel Farage
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Talks have so far been conducted behind the scenes, with Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs becoming increasingly jittery about Mr Farage’s support in the country.
However, Reform UK is already looking to consolidate itself as the main centre-right party ahead of crunch Local Elections in May.
Mr Farage has ramped up his attacks against Kemi Badenoch in recent weeks, connecting the Conservatives to the arrival of Egyptian activist Alaa Abd El-Fattah and pointing out several Tory-led councils have requested a delay to polls slated for May 7.
A source close to Mr Farage told GB News: “We already know the political establishment will do everything it can to stop Reform.
Green leader Zack Polanski is not expected to form an alliance with Labour if Sir Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister
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PA“It’s why every patriotic Brit who wants to secure borders, law and order, and create an economy that rewards hard work must vote for the only party that can beat the left: Reform.”
There is evidence to suggest Reform UK could also benefit from a similar form of tactical voting if voters fear it risks letting Sir Keir return to No10 in 2029.
Around half of 2024 Tory voters are planning to vote for Reform UK or would consider supporting Mr Farage at the next general election.
Despite Reform UK supporters being far less willing to support a Conservative candidate, a Tory campaign veteran suggested talks would need to take place ahead of 2029.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch speaking at their local election campaign launch at The Curzon Centre in Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire | PA
“For the sake of the country, Labour needs to be stopped at all costs,” the top Tory told GB News.
“A serious conversation is needed the closer we get to the general election about how that is achieved.”
Ex-Business Secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Romford MP Andrew Rosindell have both called on Reform UK and the Conservative Party to unite ahead of the next general election.
Mr Farage helped propel Boris Johnson to No10 after standing down 317 Brexit Party candidates ahead of the 2019 General Election.
Scarlett Maguire is the founder of Merlin Strategy | GB NEWS
However, Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch have both dismissed speculation of a pact or merger in 2029.
The Reform UK leader said: “I would never do a deal with a party I don’t trust. No deals, just a reverse takeover.”
Meanwhile, Mrs Badenoch claimed: “If you get into bed with Farage, heaven forbid the image, we are done with your party.”
Green Party leader Zack Polanski sparked similar problems for progressives after ruling out any alliance with Labour if Sir Keir is still leader.