The Makerfield by-election looks set to be one of the most important by-elections ever.
Andy Burnham, currently the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, is hoping it will provide him with a route back to Westminster and thus put him potentially in a position to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership.
Many Labour MPs reckon their prospects of retaining their seats at the next general election would improve if Mr Burnham were to take over as leader and Prime Minister.
Reform aim to scupper Mr Burnham’s plan. For them, Makerfield is not just an opportunity to secure another by-election success but also to throw Labour’s leadership crisis into further chaos – and damage its future prospects – and thereby further boost Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming the country’s next Prime Minister.
The seat certainly looks highly promising for Reform. Across Britain as a whole, support for the party is standing at 50 per cent among those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
Meanwhile, in Makerfield, 66 per cent backed Brexit in that ballot.
In the 2024 election, Reform won 32 per cent of the vote in the seat, putting the party in second place, just 13 points behind Labour.
That made it the seventh most marginal result among those constituencies where Labour came first, and Reform came second.
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It compares with the 35-point lead that Labour had over Reform in Runcorn & Helsby in 2024. Yet Reform still managed to wrest that seat from Labour’s grasp in last year’s by-election.
Meanwhile, the rise in Reform support in the opinion polls – and the collapse in Labour’s tally – was fully reflected in last week’s local elections in Makerfield.
In those wards wholly or mostly in the constituency, Reform won 50 per cent of the vote while Labour slumped to 23 per cent.
Reform won every single council seat that was up for grabs. In truth, the party could hardly have hoped for a by-election to arise in so promising a seat as this.
However, Mr Burnham has a proven personal popularity in Greater Manchester, of which Makerfield is part. He won no less than 63 per cent of the vote at the last mayoral election, held shortly before the 2024 general election. The result was little different in Makerfield.
That is far higher than the 43 per cent Labour won across Greater Manchester a few weeks later in the general election, as well as the 45 per cent the party won in Makerfield in particular.
However, inevitably, what remains uncertain is whether the personal vote Mr Burnham was able to reap for a mayoral position that is intended to focus voters’ minds on the candidates as much as their party will also appear in a contest in which the Labour Party and its record will be very much on the ballot paper.
Even so, Reform would be wise to field a strong candidate. Perhaps this would be an opportune time for the party’s government efficiency chief, Zia Yusuf, or chair, Dr David Bull, to step up to the plate?
That would certainly help ensure that Mr Burnham’s political abilities are put to the toughest possible test.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’.