Nigel Farage delivers a triumphant speech earlier this year at the Reform UK party conference
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Published:
1794499612
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1794502302
We have, it seems, reached a potentially decisive moment in the battle between the Conservatives and Reform to become the dominant party of the right in Britain.
Since the middle of last month, eight polling companies have conducted at least one poll in which they have asked people which party they would vote if a general election were held now.
On average, the most recent readings from these companies put the Conservatives on 22%, a point ahead of Reform on 21%.
Four of the companies put the Conservatives ahead, three reckon Reform is ahead, while one reckons it is currently a tie.
Reform’s support has not been this low since December 2024.
It is the first time since then too that the party has been trailing the Conservatives. Just six short months ago, when the party made impressive gains in the local and devolved elections, it enjoyed a ten-point lead over the Conservatives.
The rapid disappearance of that lead has encouraged some Conservatives to believe there is now an opportunity for their party to regain its status as the principal challenger to Labour, and that doing so will persuade more Reform voters to abandon Nigel Farage’s seemingly sinking ship.
According to Ipsos it is already the case that more voters now regard the Conservatives (35%) as the main opposition to Labour than believe Reform (32%) are still performing that role
The two parties have certainly been engaged in an existential battle over the last two years. At the height of Reform’s popularity, a year ago, as many as one in three of those who voted Conservative at the last general election were saying they were now backing Reform – well above the one in eight 2024 Labour voters who had switched to Reform.
Now, in contrast, only one in five 2024 Conservative supporters are saying they will vote for Reform.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are now even winning over one in ten of those who voted for Nigel Farage’s party two years ago – a switch that hitherto very few have been making.
This turnaround has been accompanied by a marked change in the popularity of the parties’ respective leaders.
A year ago, Kemi Badenoch’s net favorability rating in YouGov’s polls was -33. Now that figure stands at a much improved -15. In contrast, Nigel Farage’s score slipped from -34 to -42.
Crucially, Ms. Badenoch’s rating among those who voted for her party in 2024 has increased from a modest +32 to a commanding +60, a change of perception that may well have helped persuade some of them to return to the Tory fold.
Yet there is one key group among whom the Conservatives are still at a marked disadvantage in their battle with Reform.
Throughout this parliament, the rise of Reform has been concentrated among those who voted Leave in 2016.
And even now, at 39%, support for Reform among this group is still well ahead of the 28% who are backing the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, according to YouGov many Leave voters blame the Conservatives for their disappointment with how Brexit has turned out.
In contrast, the Conservatives enjoy the support of 18% of Remain voters whereas only 7% of them support Reform.
As a result, the voters currently backing Kemi Badenoch’s party are not only more divided on Brexit than those supporting Reform but also are more divided than the predominantly anti-Brexit coalitions backing Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
The Prime Minister’s decision to put Brexit back on the political agenda could make it more difficult for MPs.
Badenoch to keep her divided coalition together – and provide Mr. Farage with the potential rallying call he seemingly needs.
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