One option would be to bring in a specialist batter – one of Jordan Cox or James Rew – leaving England with four frontline bowlers, probably all seamers. From the trio of Matthew Fisher and the uncapped Sonny Baker and Henry Crocombe, two would come into the side.
A less likely composition of a four-man attack would include off-spinner Shoaib Bashir alongside three seamers. It would be tough on Bashir if he is omitted, but he was not required to bowl a ball at Lord’s and Surrey often play home matches at The Oval without a specialist spinner.
An all-round replacement for Stokes would be leg-spinner Rehan Ahmed, who could play in his first home Test and bat at number seven. This would give England the option of a spinner and four seamers.
However, with Archer looking likely to bat at eight, England have a lengthy tail, probably meaning the hosts needs the insurance of the extra batter. Spin bowling could be done by stand-in captain Joe Root and Jacob Bethell.
A further complication for England is the impending arrival of wicketkeeper Jamie Smith’s second child.
Smith missed the tour of New Zealand in 2024 for the birth of his first child, and even though England have said they expect him to play in the second Test, they have also not ruled out the 25-year-old needing to be with his partner.
Both Cox and Rew are wicketkeepers, so England have options, and both could be in the XI if Smith is not. If Smith plays, they could be vying for one batting spot.
Somerset’s Rew was in the squad for the first Test, but Essex’s Cox has been in Test squads before and was first called up before Rew. Cox made a double century for Essex in the County Championship on Saturday.
From the England team that played at Lord’s, Stokes, Atkinson and Robinson will definitely miss out at The Oval and could be joined on the sidelines by Bashir and Smith.
New Zealand have their own dilemma following the sudden retirement of their all-time leading run-scorer Kane Williamson.
Batter Will Young joined up with the tourists’ squad on Sunday as Williamson’s replacement.