The Denton & Gorton by-election will take place on February 26 as Labour searches to unveil its candidate after snubbing Andy Burnham from returning to Westminster.
Voters will likely go to the polls on the last Thursday of February after a writ was moved in the House of Commons for a by-election.
The by-election has to be held between 21 and 27 working days after the writ was moved.
Gorton & Denton will elect a new MP after ex-Health Minister Andrew Gwynne stepped down over health concerns following his suspension from the Labour Party over the WhatsApp group, Trigger Me Timbers.
However, Mr Gwynne’s departure from the House of Commons has been overshadowed by a bitter row between Mr Burnham and the Prime Minister.
After Labour’s ruling NEC decided to block the Greater Manchester Mayor’s bid to return to the House of Commons, Mr Burnham swiped at Sir Keir’s ally Tom Baldwin.
Mr Baldwin, who is a longstanding ally of the Prime Minister and his biographer, said: “I’ve always liked Andy Burnham but the prospect of him returning to Westminster has already added to inward-looking psychodrama that does no one any good.
“And an unnecessary by-election for Mayor of Manchester might well have resulted in long-term damage to his reputation too.”
Andy Burnham warned Labour risks losing the knife-edge by-election
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Responding to Mr Baldwin, Mr Burnham said: “I’m not sure losing a by-election does us any good either, Tom.”
Labour won Gorton & Denton in the 2024 General Election with a majority of 13,413 votes, making the Manchester seat one of the safest in the country.
However, Reform UK and the Green Party have been eyeing up the seat as part of a major challenge to Sir Keir’s leadership.
Nigel Farage is preparing to unveil a “big name” as Reform UK’s candidate, The Spectator has revealed.
Andy Burnham launched a short-lived bid to return to the House of Commons
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PAMeanwhile, Zack Polanski’s Green Party is suggesting the race is now a straight run-off with Reform UK.
Despite speculation that Mr Polanski, who was born in Salford, could run in the seat, the Green Party leader has ruled himself out of standing in the Westminster by-election.
Polling aggregators suggest Gorton & Denton remains on a knife-edge, with More in Common’s recent MRP poll suggesting that Reform UK is marginally ahead.
However, Electoral Calculus gives the Green Party a narrow lead in the constituency, while Nowcast puts Labour narrowly ahead in a three-way race.
Andrew Gwynne announced he was stepping down last week
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GETTYMr Farage, who unveiled Suella Braverman as his 26th Tory defector earlier today, suggested Reform UK will hoover up the anti-Labour vote.
The Reform UK leader said: “I think if Andy Burnham had run, he would have picked up an anti-Keir Starmer vote.
“You know, bear in mind, this is the most unpopular prime minister in living memory.
“There would have been a pro-Burnham anti-Starmer vote, that won’t be there anymore, and I think the anti-Starmer vote will come to us.”
Andy Burnham was blocked from running in the seat by Labour’s NEC
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PAMeanwhile, Sir Keir dismissed the NEC’s decision to block Mr Burnham’s by-election bid by hailing the pair’s work since he romped to victory in 2024.
He said: “Last year, in sad circumstances, we had to respond together to the attack in a synagogue in Manchester, standing side by side, reassuring the community.
“This year with the Northern Powerhouse Rail, we’re working together to deliver something that matters to Andy Burnham, to the region, to millions of people.”
However, Mr Burnham has insisted he is “getting on with my job now”, adding: “I have said everything that I needed to say.”