Nigel Farage is still eating into the Tory vote as Labour’s lead over Reform UK holds at just two per cent, a new poll exclusively shared with GB News has revealed.
Research conducted by Electoral Calculus found Reform UK’s support remains 11 points higher than at the last general election, putting Mr Farage’s party on 26 per cent.
Meanwhile, Labour has suffered a seven per cent drop since Sir Keir Starmer’s thumping 172-seat majority in 2024.
Despite a slump in support, a so-called “Burnham bounce” appears to have propelled Labour ahead of Reform UK on 28 per cent of the vote.
While Labour’s lead over Reform UK remains within the margin of error, Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have dropped three points since 2024 to stabilise at 21 per cent.
The biggest movement behind Reform UK’s rise is still coming from 2024 Conservative voters, with one in five switching to Nigel Farage’s.
Labour losses have come from across the political spectrum, with Zack Polanski’s Greens hoovering up almost 10 per cent of voters who backed Sir Keir in 2024.
However, Electoral Calculus also found that Labour is losing voters to both Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.
Electoral Calculus tracked voting shifts since the 2024 General Election
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ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, told GB News: “There is very little crossover now, with voters less likely to switch from either left-to-right or right-to-left.
“Out of every 100 voters in 2024, only one has changed sides left to right, whereas 25 have changed views about which party they support.
“Just as we saw in 2024, Labour and the Conservatives are continuing to lose support to the new insurgent parties: Reform on the right and the Greens on the left.”
Mr Baxter also set out how Mr Burnham faces an electoral conundrum.
Reform UK remains in a battle with the Tories for the centre-right
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“Andy Burnham needs to triangulate between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens,” Mr Baxter explained.
“Maybe that’s what he’s trying to do, or maybe he’s trying to edge closer to the Greens and try to get some of those lost Labour voters back.”
However, Mr Baxter stressed the so-called “Burnham bounce” appears to have stabilised.
He said: “The bounce is good so far, and seems to be stable. He’s a better communicator than Keir Starmer, but he is playing a high-wire act.
Andy Burnham’s poll bounce remains fragile
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“Politics is so fragmented, and keeping everyone happy is incredibly difficult in British politics.”
Mr Baxter also explained that Reform UK is still embroiled in a battle to secure its position as the largest party on the right.
“Voters who have left Reform have gone to Restore, but it also includes the SNP, Plaid, Gaza independents and everyone else.
“Reform are losing votes on the right. While Labour remains the largest party on the left, Reform is just about the largest party on the right.
Pollster Martin Baxter revealed the stats on GB News | GB News
“It’s much more even between Reform and the Conservatives. Reform really want to take more voters away from the Conservatives, and the Conservatives want to take more voters away from Reform.
“Logically, Reform should move a little bit closer to the Conservatives, and the Conservatives should move a little bit closer to Reform.”
Giving direct advice to Mr Farage, Mr Baxter added: “I’d suggest that Nigel Farage could have a slightly more right-wing economic agenda – maybe be tighter on the budget and spending – to peel off the economically conservative voters from the Tories.”
The polling guru also indicated Reform has more voters to win over from the Tories than other parties, including Restore Britain supporters.