Households with property, investments and retirement savings could face higher taxes at the October Budget.
An analysis of senior ministers’ voting records suggests Chancellor John Healey may target wealth and assets as he looks to raise revenue without increasing income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance rates.
Pension provider PensionBee has examined the parliamentary voting histories of the five ministers most likely to shape the Chancellor’s first Budget on Wednesday, October 28.
The five figures under the microscope are Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Chancellor Healey, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds, Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden, and Pensions Minister Torsten Bell.
Labour’s manifesto commitment to hold the line on income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance rates leaves wealth, property and capital levies as the clearest path to new revenue.
The voting records of all five ministers are most closely aligned in precisely this area.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast, released alongside the Budget, will determine how much fiscal space actually exists for policy changes.
Mr Burnham has a strong track record of opposing welfare spending reductions while backing higher taxes on top earners and capital gains.
Mr Burnham has a strong track record of opposing welfare spending reductions
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GB NEWSThis pattern suggests the government is unlikely to turn to benefit cuts as a means of bridging the fiscal gap.
Mr Healey’s record in parliament tells a similar story as the Chancellor has repeatedly supported a mansion tax and additional rises in capital gains tax, while voting against VAT increases.
Taken together, these positions point towards a Budget built around taxing wealth rather than consumption.
PensionBee noted, however, that past voting behaviour should not be treated as a reliable guide to future tax decisions. Backbench votes carry little cost and do not always translate into government policy.
Ms Reynolds, who oversees the spending review from her position at the Treasury, has consistently voted in favour of raising both capital gains tax and stamp duty.
The Chancellor has repeatedly supported a mansion tax and additional rises in capital gains tax
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PARLIAMENT.TVMr McFadden, the minister responsible for the welfare budget, has a near-unbroken record of opposing cuts to benefit spending.
PensionBee’s analysis suggests this makes benefits reform a more probable route to savings at the Department for Work and Pensions than outright reductions.
Of the five, Mr Bell brings the most pension-specific parliamentary history. He has regularly backed capital gains tax and stamp duty increases.
As Pensions Minister, he also stood behind the £2,000 salary-sacrifice pension cap introduced in Budget 2025, defending the measure when the House of Lords sought to raise the threshold.
Becky O’Connor, Head of Pensions at PensionBee, urged caution when reading too much into these records.
Mr McFadden has a near-unbroken record of opposing cuts to benefit spending
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GETTYShe said: “The same caution applies here: a decade of backbench votes tells us about instinct and ideology, rather than intent. Just as ‘feelings aren’t facts’, fevered speculation is not policy announcement.”
Ms O’Connor also highlighted the risks of tax measures aimed at pension wealth.
She said: “When it comes to wealth or income tax increases, the way measures affect pension savers, in particular those already retired, is a minefield when it comes to actually achieving any wealth redistribution goals.”
Such taxes, she warned, do not always hit the wealthiest. Instead, they “can end up penalising those who have worked hard, saved diligently and made net economic contributions but are not necessarily wealthy.”
Ms O’Connor’s message to savers was clear: do not make major financial decisions based on guesswork.
She said: “Savers should avoid making key decisions that may have long-term consequences for their own financial future based on rumours, historical voting records or assumptions.”
The right course of action, she argued, is to sit tight until the government sets out its plans on October 28 and to seek professional guidance before taking any steps.
She added: “Damage has recently been done through pension savers moving on speculation, particularly in relation to pension taxation. It’s best to wait until the facts are known and the impact quantifiable.”
Anyone unsure about how Budget changes might affect them should speak to a financial adviser, Ms O’Connor concluded.