Above-average rainfall is needed across England for the next seven months for all areas to recover from drought by spring 2027, according to new research.
The Environment Agency (EA) stated that despite some wet weather during the first half of September, almost three-quarters of England remains in drought following an exceptionally dry spring and summer as well as a succession of heatwaves.
It says around 120% of typical rainfall is needed between now and April for all areas to be considered out of drought.
Even under the most likely rainfall scenario – which predicts a wetter autumn than normal based on the latest Met Office forecasts – Devon and Cornwall and East Anglia could still be in drought by the start of spring 2027.
Other predictions suggest there is also roughly a one-in-four chance that around half of England will still be in drought next spring, but currently only a 1% chance of a severe drought in the coming months.
The EA defines severe drought as a situation where water shortages have extensive and lasting impacts on the environment, farming, communities and the economy, and where there may be a serious threat to public water supplies. England has not seen a severe drought since 1976.