Economists forecast that Britain’s economy expanded by 0.2 per cent in November, bringing an end to two straight months of contraction.
Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics and Investec anticipate the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will confirm this growth when it publishes official data next Thursday.
The figures would mark the first monthly increase since June and offer welcome news for the Labour government.
GDP had fallen by 0.1 per cent in both September and October, with weaker production weighing on output.
Business investment also remained muted ahead of the autumn budget on November, 26 according to the ONS.
Manufacturing is expected to show the strongest improvement in the upcoming data.
Investec’s Philip Shaw anticipates a “bounce back” in the sector as vehicle production returned to more typical levels.
The recovery follows disruption caused by a major cyber attack that forced Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), the UK’s biggest car manufacturer, to halt production in September.
Industry figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a 22 per cent month-on-month surge in production during November.
Vehicle manufacturing specifically climbed 12 per cent over the same period.
This rebound in automotive output played a significant role in reversing the economic weakness seen in previous months.
Economists expect GDP rebound after two months of contraction
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GETTY
Hospitality spending proved resilient during November, with data from CGA and RSM showing 3.1 per cent growth compared to three per cent the month before.
Pubs performed particularly well, while inflation provided a modest boost.
Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan Doak, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “All told, we think the economy continued to chug along in November, despite months of pre-budget uncertainty.
“Services activity likely rose at a solid clip in November, driven by healthy growth in consumer-facing services.”
Retail sales volumes did slip 0.1 per cent during the month, however.
Looking ahead, Pantheon economists expect the manufacturing recovery to support fourth-quarter growth, though they predict expansion of just 0.1 per cent for the period.
In the latest GDP release, for October, real GDP fell by 0.1 per cent.
This followed growth of 0.1 per cent in the three months to September 2025 and 0.2 per cent in the three months to August 2025.
Rachel Reeves’s priority since becoming Chancellor has been growth in the economy and tackling the cost of living.
Last January, she said: “For too long, we have accepted low expectations, accepted stagnation and accepted the risk of decline. We can do so much better.
“Low growth is not our destiny. But growth will not come without a fight.
“That’s what our Plan for Change is about. That is what drives me as Chancellor. And it is what I’m determined to deliver.”
Britain’s economic outlook
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OBR
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now expects the economy to grow faster than previously thought, upgrading its 2025 real GDP forecast to 1.5 per cent—0.5 percentage points higher than in the March Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
The revision reflects stronger‑than‑reported output in late 2024 and an unexpectedly robust start to 2025, with first‑quarter growth hitting 0.7 per cent.
That early momentum was flattered by temporary factors.
Households accelerated property purchases ahead of stamp duty threshold changes, while exporters rushed to move goods before new tariffs took effect in April.
Looking ahead, the watchdog expects only a gradual pickup in quarterly growth.
Geopolitical tensions, subdued business and consumer confidence, and the prospect of further tax rises are all expected to weigh on the near‑term outlook.