The seaside town where Jeremy Corbyn could challenge Reform UK to defeat Labour

Represented by then-Home Secretary Amber Rudd, who even stood in for Theresa May for two televised debates, the Sussex seaside seat narrowly voted to keep their Tory incumbent on by a margin of just 346 votes.

With the Brexit-backing seat facing a choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, Sally-Ann Hart opened up a 4,043 vote advantage over self-proclaimed socialist Peter Chowney.

A phenomenon all but overlooked in Hastings & Rye has been the rise of Reform UK.

When the late Gogglebox star Andrew Michael contested the seat for Ukip in 2015, just 13.3 per cent voted for Farage.

That figure jumped up to 16.1 per cent under Reform UK’s banner in 2024, seeing Helena Dollimore become Hastings first Labour MP since 2010.

Hart’s support dwindled down to just 22.8 per cent, 18.8 per cent behind Dollimore.

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Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage

However, More in Common’s most recent MRP poll placed Reform’s support at 31 per cent, more than doubling its vote share compared to the last General Election.

Tory support has been modestly boosted to just 24 per cent, with Labour dropping by 17 per cent to just 23 per cent.

There has also been a steady surge in support for the Green Party, leaping from just 3.8 per cent in 2015 to 12.5 per cent in 2024.

Excluding the emergence of Corbyn’s co-led Your Party, the Greens now stand at 15 per cent.

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A general view of fishing boats on The Stade Beach on February 2, 2025

And Hastings Borough Council is even run by a minority Green administration since January 2024, being completely transformed after its lengthy stint under Labour’s control.

Corbyn is widely expected to eat into the Green Party and Labour’s vote share, with More in Common suggesting Your Party will hoover up three points from Labour and four points from the Greens.

And Merlin Strategy founder Scarlett Maguire has suggested Hastings could emerge as a key contest to keep an eye on.

“Hastings might be interesting. It’s quite Corbyn-y and the Greens did very well there last time in quite a Corbyn-esque way,” Maguire said.

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More in Common is warning Jeremy Corbyn could cripple Labour and the Greens

“Reform also did very well last time, like in many coastal towns.

“Labour was able to win because turnout went massively down and they managed to come through the middle.

“I do wonder, actually, if that’s somewhere where a Corbyn ticket could potentially do well.”

She added: “There are voters interested in both Corbyn and Farage out there.

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The vote share in Hastings & Rye since 1997

“There’s not many of them but there is something in the appeal that shows my Reform voters are more likely to like Corbyn over Starmer.”

Despite Maguire suggesting there will not be many seats going up that will see Reform UK face off against Your Party, Merlin Strategy found that Farage’s most loyal supporters prefer Corbyn to Starmer.

By a margin of two-to-one, Reform UK voters believe Corbyn is more authentic, honest, radical, principled and stronger than Starmer.

Responding to Merlin Strategy poll, Corbyn told Novara Media: “The Labour Government is here to appease Reform. We are here to defeat Reform.”