With Britain just coming out the other side of an Arctic blast, many Britons have been keeping a keen eye on their weather apps.
But which weather app is the most accurate? According to scientists from the University of Reading, the answer depends on what you’re looking for.
If it’s the best temperature forecasts you’re after, the experts advise using the Met Office.
However, if you’re more interested in rain predictions, it’s better to use BBC Weather.
Dr Rob Thompson, who led the research, said: ‘Whether you use BBC Weather or Met Office for checking the weather, you’re in good hands.
‘The forecasts are reliable for several days, helping you to know what clothes to pack for a weekend trip or when to expect a frost in the garden.
‘BBC Weather appears to be slightly better at predicting rain, although its variability means forecasting rain is much harder than temperature and needs more data to draw firm conclusions.
‘As we would expect, we also find that the further ahead the forecast, the more uncertainty there is.’
With Britain just coming out the other side of an Arctic blast, many Britons have been keeping a keen eye on their weather apps. But which weather app is the most accurate?
If it’s the best temperature forecasts you’re after, the experts advise using the Met Office. However, if you’re more interested in rain predictions, it’s better to use BBC Weather
Dr Thompson and meteorology PhD student Rosie Mammatt compared live weather forecast data from BBC Weather and the Met Office for Reading against actual weather data recorded at the University of Reading Atmospheric Observatory.
On average, both apps predicted rain would occur 17 per cent of the time, when it actually rained for just under 10 per cent of the time.
The researchers said that the extra chance of rain could be accounted for by ‘a very light rain’ that a person would notice, but that devices used by meteorologists would not.
Overall, as of 13 January, the Met Office was slightly more accurate at predicting temperatures than the BBC.
The Met Office’s app was right on 5.4 per cent more occasions than BBC Weather.
But BBC Weather gave the more ‘useful’ forecast – in terms of whether it predicted rain or not – on 6.1 per cent of occasions.
‘Modern weather forecasting has advanced significantly thanks to more atmospheric observations (particularly from satellites), improved computer models, and a deeper understanding of weather science,’ Dr Thompson said.
‘These tools allow meteorologists to predict large-scale weather patterns with remarkable accuracy, even a week or more ahead.
‘However, pinpointing the exact timing and location of rain remains a challenge, explaining the remaining uncertainty in rainfall forecasts.’
The study analysed 85,000 forecasts from both apps across 704 observation times during autumn and winter 2024.
They also found that temperature forecasts were highly accurate – with both apps predicting temperatures correctly to within 2°C up to three days in advance and 3°C up to five days ahead, with biases smaller than 1°C.
The researchers found that forecasts from the two apps often matched – more than 71 per cent of the time for predictions for the next hour, and 57 per cent of the time even at five days out.
The BBC used to use the Met Office for its weather forecasters, but dropped the Met Office in 2018 and now uses US-based firm DTN for its data.