The Arctic could be ice-free within three years in an ‘ominous milestone’ for the planet, a new study warns.
At just 1.65 million square miles, this year’s minimum sea ice coverage was already well below the 1979-92 average of 2.65 million square miles.
But scientists now warn that the first summer which completely melts all of the Arctic’s sea ice could occur by 2027.
Using 300 computer simulations, scientists predicted that the Arctic’s first ice-free day is guaranteed to occur within nine to 20 years regardless of how humans alter their greenhouse gas emissions.
However, nine out of the 300 simulations suggested that an ice-free day could occur as soon as three years’ time, regardless of how humans act from now.
While the disappearance of Arctic sea ice will lead to huge changes to the planet’s climate and weather patterns, it will not lead to big changes in sea levels.
Unlike glaciers or ice sheets on land, Arctic sea ice is already in the ocean so its melting won’t cause sea levels to rise.
This is the same reason that a glass full of ice and water doesn’t overflow when the ice melts.
Scientists warn that the Arctic sea ice could vanish as early as 2027 as extreme weather events melt millions of square miles of ice in just three years
Study author Dr Céline Heuzé at the University of Gothenburg said the first ice-free day could significantly impact Earth’s ecosystem and climate by changing weather patterns.
The researchers warn that an ice-free Arctic would trigger extreme weather events including cold spells of -4°F (-20°C) as far south as Italy or forest fires in Scandinavia.
‘During that day the Arctic Ocean will be able to absorb a lot more heat than usual and that will make it harder for sea ice to reform,’ she told told MailOnline.
‘[This[ then makes it more likely to have another day with no sea ice, and another, and an entire month.’
Previous predictions of Arctic sea ice disappearance have typically focussed on the first iceless month – defined as the first 30 days with an ice extent below 386,000 square miles.
In their previous research co-author Dr Alexandra Jahn, associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, has predicted that this is inevitable by the 2030s.
However, for this study, the authors opted instead to look at the first 24-hour period in which the Arctic will become ice-free.
Dr Heuzé says: ‘For the climate, admittedly one day only may not matter that much.
Across 300 computer simulations, the majority predicted the Arctic would have an ice-free day within nine to 20 years. However, nine simulations predicted an ice-free day within three to six years
This October the Artic sea ice was at its fourth level on record for the month, scientists are concerned that future summers may have days or even months with less than 386,000 square miles of ice which is the limit for being ‘ice free’
‘But mostly, that first day will be a symbol, making climate change visible. Think about it: We, humans, changed what an entire ocean looks like.’
Dr Jahn adds: ‘It will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions.’
Dr Heuzé and Dr Jahn used 300 different computer simulations to predict the first day summer temperatures would completely melt the sea ice.
In most of those simulations, is predicted to occur sometime between 2032 and 2043.
However, in nine of the possible scenarios simulated, the Arctic ice vanished for a day within the next three to six years.
By looking at these scenarios the scientists discovered that a series of extreme weather events could melt 770,000 square miles or more of sea ice in a short period of time.
In this case, an unusually hot autumn would weaken the sea ice, followed by a warm Arctic winter and spring which prevents more sea ice from forming.
If this were to happen for three years in a row, then the Arctic would be ice-free by the late summer of 2027.
Ice extent generally reaches its peak in winter before shrinking in summer. While this year’s minimum Arctic ice extent was not as low as 2012 (orange) experts warn that the sea ice appears to be recovering slower. This study found that a warm autumn followed by mild Arctic winters could melt enough sea ice to deliver an ice-free day in three years
While it might have big impacts on the climate, melting sea ice will not cause big rises in sea levels since the sea ice is already in the water. The bigger concern is that it allows the sea to warm further, melting glaciers and ice sheets on land which will cause sea levels to rise
Worryingly, these kinds of temperatures are already being recorded across the Arctic.
For example, in March 2022 some areas of the Arctic were 50°F hotter than average with temperatures so high that areas around the North Pole were beginning to melt.
Likewise, this October was the second hottest October on record, coming in just behind 2023 with an average global temperature of 15.25°C (59.45°F).
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), this makes 2024 ‘virtually certain’ to be the hottest on record.
Over the last three decades, scientists have watched as the extent of the Arctic’s sea ice shrink by 12 per cent each decade.
This year, the Arctic’s minimum sea ice extent was one of the lowest in recorded history, reaching the fourth-lowest extent on record in October.
Although this year’s minimum was higher than the record low of September 2012, C3S observed that it has been recovering slower than that record-breaking year.
But beyond the purely symbolic value, an ice-free Arctic could also lead to significant impacts on the wider climate.
Sea temperatures in October (pictured) were at their second-highest level for the month this year. This leads to an increased risk that the sea ice will not recover over the Arctic winter
If the sea ice continues to vanish as current trends suggest it will, the researchers warn that this could trigger extreme weather events including cold snaps of -20°C (-4°F) as far south as Italy. Pictured: a graph showing the yearly Arctic sea ice level relative to the 1991-2020 average
Dr Heuzé says: ‘Globally, the Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in controlling the climate by sending back sunlight to space.
‘When we lose this white surface and instead are left with the dark ocean, the energy from the sun stays with us, is absorbed by the ocean, and results in even more global warming.’
This means that as the Arctic’s sea ice begins to vanish, it makes it more likely that temperatures will stay high enough to prevent ice reforming.
The consequences of that could be severe as the loss of the Arctic ice destabilises global weather patterns.
Dr Heuzé says: ‘We are already losing the Arctic sea ice, and have been for decades, so we already have observations on this.
‘In the northern hemisphere, it seems to cause more extreme weather, year-round.
‘Think of the cold spells with -20° (-4°F) down to Italy, or the heatwaves over northern Europe and forest fires throughout Scandinavia.’
According to Dr Jahn’s research, this cycle will inevitably lead to months without sea ice by some time in the 2030s.
While the researchers say that there is no way of preventing this moment from coming, Dr Jahn says that rapid action can delay it for longer.
He says: ‘Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice.’