Zack Polanski’s Green Party would go head-to-head with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in 49 battleground seats, new research following a bombshell opinion poll has revealed.
Find Out Now’s latest survey puts Reform UK in the lead on 32 per cent, with Mr Polanski surging into second place on 17 per cent.
The dramatic shift, which draws comparisons to the support given to the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats in mid-2019, leaves the Tory Party and Labour Party languishing behind on just 16 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats remain in line with Sir Ed Davey’s record-busting 2024 performance on 12 per cent.
Fresh research by Nowcast EU suggests Reform UK would hoover up 383 seats.
Despite finishing in fifth place, the Liberal Democrats would make a net gain of six to become the official opposition on 78 seats.
Mr Polanski would likely oversee the Green Party soar from just four MPs to 51, with the SNP restoring its control of Scotland with 45 seats.
Such a scenario would also reduce both Labour and the Tories to fringe parties, returning just 30 and 27 MPs respectively.
Out of the 49 seats identified as battleground territory between Reform UK and the Green Party, Mr Farage would be expected to claim victory in 37 seats.
Ashford, Birmingham Selly Oak, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bolton West, Bournemouth West, Bradford South, Bury St Edmunds, Canterbury, Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, Dagenham & Rainham, Dover & Deal, East Thanet, Folkestone & Hythe, Forest of Dean, Gorton & Denton, Halifax, Hastings & Rye, Hertford & Stortford, Hyndburn, Isle of Wight East, Kettering, Lancaster & Wyre, Leicester West, Luton South & South Bedfordshire, Newcastle upon Tyne East & Wallsend, Norwich North, Salford, Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, South Norfolk, South Shields, Southampton Test, Stroud, Suffolk Coastal, Tonbridge and Worcester.
Meanwhile, Mr Polanski could see off a surge from Reform UK in the remaining 13 seats.
Barking, Birkenhead, Bristol East, Bristol North East, Bristol South, Exeter, Huddersfield, Leeds South, Manchester Central, North Herefordshire, Norwich South, Sheffield Heeley, Waveney Valley.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
There is little evidence on whether Labour and Liberal Democrats voters would switch support to the Green Party to stop Reform UK hoovering up more seats.
However, Reform UK’s lead over the Greens is five per cent or less in Canterbury, Gorton & Denton, Isle of Wight East, Salford, Stroud, and Tonbridge – making all six seats vulnerable to even a modest degree of tactical voting.
Mr Farage already appeared to be the victim of astute tactical voting in the recent Caerphilly Welsh Parliament by-election.
Reform UK secured 36 per cent of the vote, trailing Plaid Cymru by 11.4 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party received just 11 per cent of the vote, leaving five other parties unable to break through two per cent of the vote.
Mr Polanski has already hinted at working with other progressive parties to halt Mr Farage’s march to No10.
“I do think stopping Nigel Farage has to be a huge mission for any progressive in this country,” the Green Party leader said last week.
“But I would say the biggest way to stop Nigel Farage is by people joining the Green Party right now.”
Mr Polanski appeared to suggest that the Greens would not support Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister but hinted at another figure taking on as Labour leader ahead of the next General Election.
The London Assembly Member has also labelled Mr Farage a “fascist”, sparking outrage from supporters of the Reform UK leader.
Despite spending much of his time taking aim at Reform UK, Mr Polanski faces huge challenges when it comes to cutting through with voters.
A majority of voters still do not know if they have a favourable or unfavourable view of the Green Party leader.