State pension could reach £33,000 a year by 2050 under triple lock shake-up

The projection comes from pensions consultancy Hymans Robertson, which has modelled how the Government’s adjusted triple lock could work over the coming decades.

Its analysis suggests the new system could reduce government spending on the State Pension by as much as 4.6 per cent by 2050.

The adjusted lock is due to replace the current formula from April 2030.

Hymans Robertson has launched a State Pension Explorer tool that allows people to compare the existing and proposed systems under different economic conditions.

The consultancy said the reforms could protect pensioners’ incomes while reducing the long-term cost to taxpayers.

However, the results will depend on future inflation, earnings growth and wider economic conditions.

Calum Cooper, Head of Pensions Policy Innovation at Hymans Robertson, said the changes showed “a clear commitment to transform the current pension system in a sustained planned manner to benefit both pensioners and protect the economy.”

He said the adjusted lock would maintain the link between the State Pension and average earnings, helping to protect the value of payments over time.

Mr Cooper added: “We believe that the redesign of the State Pension could reduce the cost to the government by as much as 4.6% by 2050, a significant saving on spending.”

He described the prospect of protecting pensioners while reducing costs as “no small feat”.

Mr Cooper cautioned that the projected savings were not guaranteed, noting that in a low-growth economy the fiscal benefit “can fall by almost half.”

He stressed that outcomes would continue to hinge on shifts in inflation, earnings and broader economic volatility, describing the reform as supporting “a more sustainable settlement” rather than delivering a fixed result.

“The results show why this is not a simple savings story,” he said.

“Our explorer helps people examine those trade-offs rather than rely on a single forecast.”

The £33,000 projection remains subject to economic conditions, the consultancy confirmed, but should offer future pensioners meaningful protection against rising living costs.