Following Farage’s difficulties, Labour is also now losing fewer of its 2024 voters to Reform. But the same is true of the Conservatives, whose loss of support to Reform in the polls during in this parliament has always been much greater than that suffered by Labour. Far from suffering from a Burnham bounce, Kemi Badenoch’s party has edged up to 20% in the polls for the first time since last spring.
Burnham’s arrival has given Labour new hope. But despite having overtaken Reform in the polls, the new Labour leader still has to prove he can win back the working class pro-Brexit voters that Labour once regarded as its core vote but who now form the heart of support for Reform.
To do this – and put Labour on course for victory in 2029 – Burnham needs to deliver on the policy challenges facing his government, which remain as formidable as those that beset Sir Keir. Labour’s prospects at the next election will ultimately depend on whether voters have come to believe that what he has said he will do is actually happening.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe
Top picture credit: Reuters