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A bombshell new poll has suggested Reform UK would be the largest party if an election were to be held today, but they would not have enough MPs to form a Government.
A new YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll, Nigel Farage’s party would win 271 seats, giving them the most MPs.
Labour would lose 233 of the 412 seats it won, dropping down to 178 seats. The poll is equally dire reading for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives as they would lose another 75 seats, leaving the party with just 46 MPs.
It was more positive for the Liberal Democrats, who would gain nine seats, putting Sir Ed Davey’s party up to 81 seats, ahead of the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, the Greens and Plaid Cymru would see a boost, each taking three new seats to give them seven MPs each, a record high for both parties.
The SNP, meanwhile, would win back most of the seats they lost to Labour at the last election, for a total of 38 MPs in Scotland.
Under the results, Reform UK would be the largest party in a hung Parliament, as Labour could still not put together a majority even if it were to negotiate a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.
Director of political analytics at YouGov, Patrick English, said: “Just a year since Labour’s election landslide, the party is on course to win fewer seats than it did in 2019.
“That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”
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Immigration main reason why new Reform voters have abandoned Labour
A YouGov poll has revealed high levels of immigration is the main reason why 2024 Labour voters have left the party for Reform UK.
When asked the main reason why they no longer supported Sir Keir Starmer’s party, 62 per cent said it was because “Immigration is too high.”
Elsewhere, 44 per cent said it was because Labour has broken promises and 28 per cent said Reform UK closer to their values.
Keir Starmer preparing to water down controversial welfare bill to appease rebels
Keir Starmer at NatoPA
The Prime Minister is looking to water down his welfare cuts Bill in an attempt to combat a mass backbencher rebellion.
Downing Street is exploring tabling its own amendment for the vote on Tuesday to avoid Keir Starmer’s first House of Commons defeat, reports The Telegraph.
One option currently being discussed is to include a promise to speed up the payment of funds to help people back into work.
Another potential option is offering assurances that reviews of policies in this area will be published soon.