Labour could “clutch at a straw” to win the votes of Liberal Democrats and Green supporters, a national pollster has told GB News.
In a bid to fend off Nigel Farage from No10, supporters from both parties could flock to Sir Keir Starmer’s party, YouGov polling for The Times revealed.
Looking towards the next General Election, tactical voting is forecast to be a key feature with voting-age Britons casting ballots for strategy over their own heart.
The analysis showed that more than half (57 per cent) of Liberal Democrat voters and 46 per cent of Green voters would bin off their preferred party to back Labour if they resided in a seat where Reform UK was projected to win.
The data also revealed that voters from all three parties would back the Conservatives when it came to seats where there would be a clash between Kemi Badenoch’s followers and Nigel Farage’s clan.
Some 34 per cent of Labour supporters would cast their vote for the Tories to stop Reform, while 39 per cent from Ed Davey’s party would switch allegiances.
Almost a fifth of those backing the Green Party would do the same.
Speaking to GB News’ Martin Daubney, Electoral Calculus’ Martin Baxter said: “Viewers to your programme may find some of this a little bit familiar, because we’ve been talking about it since September.
Mr Baxter and Martin discussed the impact of tactical voting (right) if it were deployed to current forecasts (left)
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ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Electoral Calculus CEO Martin Baxter has forecast that tactical voting will be a key feature the next time Britons head to the polls
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ELECTORAL CALCULUS
“But we’re very glad that YouGov matched our figures and come up with very similar conclusions, which is that tactical voting looks like it’s very real and very important.
Discussing the findings on the People’s Channel, the CEO of Electoral Calculus said that Reform would win a majority “beyond their wildest dreams” and witness a “massive change-up” from their five-seat victory in 2024.
In the case calculated by Mr Baxter, Nigel Farage would “sweep into No10 Downing Street with a three-figure majority of 118 seats with Reform on 384 seats.
He told Martin: “So dare I say possibly even beyond Reform’s wildest dreams, or certainly at the edges of their wildest dreams. You know, a massive change up from just five seats at the last General Election.
“So Morgan McSweeney is quite right that it is one of the straws that Labour can clutch, that it will certainly help Labour.”
If the electorate opted into tactical voting, Labour would snatch 17 more seats, while the Conservatives would get 30 more seats.
“So it helps the two big old parties,” Mr Baxter explained.
“But even on those figures, even with tactical voting, if everybody who we think who says might vote tactically votes tactically, Nigel Farage is still Prime Minister, but with a smaller majority,” he added.
Even if tactical voting were deployed by rival parties, Nigel Farage would still be projected to enter Downing Street
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PA
The latest data from YouGov is hot on the heels of October’s Caerphilly by-election which witnessed the traditional Labour and Conservative vote caving into parties which the electorate believed had the greatest change of securing victory.
Sir Keir’s vote share plummeted from 46 per cent in 2021 to 11 per cent at the polls this year, while the Conservatives’ dropped from 17 per cent to two per cent.
Although Plaid Cymru bagged the win in the end with 47 per cent of the vote, Reform UK’s share also skyrocketed from 1.7 per cent four years ago to 36 per cent last month.
Now, parties across the political spectrum are gearing up for regional and local elections next May, including the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments.