Tyrone Sermon, Head of Research at Find Out Now, has warned of a potential “Labour meltdown” as the latest polling shows Reform UK surging ahead.
The latest YouGov poll shows Reform UK holding steady on 27 per cent of the vote, just within the margin of error of last week’s 26 per cent, giving them an eight-point lead over any other party.
Labour remain unchanged on 19 per cent, while the Conservatives drop slightly to 18 per cent from 19 per cent in the previous poll.
The Greens are at 15 per cent, effectively unchanged from last week’s 16 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats remain on 14 per cent.
Running the numbers through his electoral model, Mr Sermon said Reform UK could claim 30 per cent of the vote and 341 seats, while the Conservatives drop to just 70.
Labour faces near-total devastation, potentially losing 380 seats and dropping to just 32.
Speaking to GB News, he said: “I think my main takeaway is that, maybe because there are so many polls or because we’re used to bad news, we’ve almost become accustomed to seeing the governing party, who won an enormous majority last year, in fourth place.
“But no, this is deeply, deeply unusual, and I just don’t think it’s quite sunk in yet
“As always, I’ve run the numbers through my electoral calculus model to see how the country would look based on this poll.
“Let’s get it up on your screens. We can see Reform UK leaping into first position with 30 per cent of the vote and 341 seats an incredible swing.
“The Conservatives drop to 70 seats, a loss of 51. The Greens surge into third place, while Labour faces near-extinction, down to just 32 seats losing 380.
“If this were to happen, the entire Labour cabinet would be wiped out for the first time in history, including Sir Keir Starmer losing his seat. Seats would shift to Reform, the Greens, and a few independents.”
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“People might say this is just one poll, but it’s worth remembering that exactly 365 days ago, on 12 December last year, Labour were in first place. Now they’re in fourth.
“Even if some voters return, three-quarters of Labour cabinet members would still lose their seats.
“Labour are losing voters partly to Reform UK, mainly to the left to the Greens, and some are choosing not to vote at all.
“Their hope is that the economy improves and public services get better to win voters back, but even then, it would be a very long road to deny Reform UK a majority, let alone win one themselves.”
Reform UK has also become the largest political party in Britain by membership after Labour’s share slumped by 100,000.
Internal figures showed Labour has fallen below 250,000 in paid-up members since the 2024 General Election.
Meanwhile, Reform UK’s membership total stands at 268,703 on its live counter, just 12 months after overtaking the Tories on 131,680 on Boxing Day.
Responding to the milestone moment, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “As we have suspected for some time, Reform is now the largest political party in British politics — a huge milestone for us. The age of two-party politics is dead.”
When Sir Keir became Labour leader, the party’s membership stood just below the record-busting 550,000 that was amassed under Jeremy Corbyn.
However, the figure nosedived to 432,000 by December 2021, later tumbling to 333,235 members last year.
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