Nigel Farage would defeat a Conservative candidate even if Labour stands aside in a second Clacton by-election, polling analysis exclusively shared with GB News has suggested.
The Reform UK leader, who retained his seaside seat with a 12,784 vote majority last week, could be forced to go to the polls again later this year amid an investigation into a £5million gift from the Thai-based billionaire Christopher Harborne.
Tory insiders have been plotting how to take on Mr Farage in the once-safe Conservative constituency, with Kemi Badenoch searching for a candidate to rival the Reform UK leader.
Sources have also opened the door to doing a deal with Labour after putting pressure on Andy Burnham to step aside in the potential contest.
However, analysis conducted by Electoral Calculus suggested Mr Farage would likely romp to victory even if he faces a challenge from an establishment-backed Tory candidate.
The analysis, which is based on current national polling, found Mr Farage’s support stands at 44 per cent, with the Tories in a distant second on 22 per cent.
Meanwhile, Labour sits at just 12 per cent, leaving the Liberal Democrats on just seven per cent and the Greens on four per cent.
While a majority of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters would likely back a Conservative candidate against Mr Farage, Electoral Calculus found a small number would break in favour of the Reform UK leader.
Electoral Calculus found Nigel Farage would likely win against a so-called ‘uniparty’ candidate
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GB NEWS
Such a scenario would likely leave Mr Farage on 47 per cent of the vote, down from 63 per cent in last week’s by-election.
The Tories would find themselves in a close second, with support surging from just 28 per cent in 2024 to 42 per cent.
However, around one in 10 voters would still be expected to support another candidate.
A record-breaking 34 candidates stood in last week’s by-election despite mainstream parties boycotting the vote.
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage won last week’s Clacton by-election | REUTERS
Count Binface, who emerged as the main anti-Reform candidate standing against Mr Farage last week, ended up retaining his deposit for the first time after securing 27 per cent of the vote.
However, Reform UK insiders have railed against rumours of a so-called pact between the Tories and Labour in Clacton.
“This is the desperate uniparty in action,” a Reform UK source told GB News.
“Kemi and Burnham will strike whatever slimy, underhanded deal they can to try and stop Nigel disrupting their cosy Westminster cabal and delivering the change their parties have failed to bring about over decades.
Kemi Badenoch is searching for a candidate to take on Nigel Farage | PA
“Voters didn’t fall for it last week, and they won’t fall for it again.”
GB News understands the process of selecting a new Conservative candidate in Clacton will formally start next month, with Tories approved to put their names forward now being invited to do so.
A Tory candidate will also be selected for Robert Jenrick’s Newark constituency, with Aylesbury, Chelsea & Fulham, Hendon, Maidstone & Malling, North East Hampshire, Poole, Redditch, Ribble Valley, and South West Norfolk also included in the September set.
Ex-Conservative MP Giles Watling opened the door to a return to frontline politics when Mr Farage triggered the 2026 Clacton by-election earlier this summer.
Jonathan Harvey (pictured) opened the door to a second by-election in Clacton if Nigel Farage is found to have broken Parliamentary rules | PA
Mr Watling, a theatre actor who lost to Mr Farage in 2024 by 8,405 votes, romped to victory in the 2019 General Election with a thumping 31,438 votes, putting him ahead of Mr Farage’s by-election showing of 22,239.
However, Mr Watling is not guaranteed to be selected as the Conservative Party’s candidate.
Mrs Badenoch is now demanding that all would-be Tory MPs adopt tough stances on the European Convention on Human Rights and Net Zero.
Despite Mr Watling expressing an interest in standing in Clacton, the Tories have been tipped to select a military veteran to challenge Mr Farage.
Votes are counted for the Clacton by-election at Clacton Leisure Centre in Essex | PA
A second by-election could take place in Clacton later this year after the standards commissioner reopened his investigation into the £5million gift given to Mr Farage.
However, a by-election is only possible if the investigation rules against Mr Farage and MPs on the privileges committee suspend the Clacton MP for 10 days or more.
Such a situation would trigger a recall petition in Mr Farage’s seat, with 10 per cent of the electorate needing to sign up to force voters to go to the polls for the second time this year.
Speaking to GB News ahead of his victory in Clacton, the Reform UK leader said: “The voters of Clacton don’t care.
As many as 75,000 Britons could make their voices heard in a second Clacton by-election | GETTY
“Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative canvassers have been out for [Count] Binface.
“They’re not going to win. They will not call a second by-election. They’d be stupid to do so.”
He added: “If I’ve made one sin, it is I haven’t fill in a piece of paper.
“I’ve broken no law. I’ve broken no tax law. I’ve taken no public money.”
Mr Farage won by a comfortable margin | PA
Despite opting against fielding a candidate in last week’s by-election, Mrs Badenoch penned an open letter to residents across Clacton to confirm the Conservatives would stand if a second poll is triggered.
In her 771-word letter, the Leader of the Opposition accused Mr Farage of calling the vote to “help himself” and claimed he wanted his constituents to “settle his problems for him”.
She added: “Most people cannot imagine being given £5m. It is life-changing money. Actually, more than most lottery winners will get.
“But this wasn’t a lottery win. It was given to him, and the people of Clacton are entitled to ask why someone would give Nigel Farage that kind of money.
“More importantly, you are entitled to ask what that person expected in return.”