On the surface, Jackson’s numbers at Bayern Munich last season compare favourably with those of Watkins at Villa.
The Senegal forward scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90.
Jackson also generated more attacking opportunities. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins’ 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2.
His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins’ 5.6.
That fits a pattern which predates his spell in Germany. Among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has registered a higher non-penalty xG figure per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55.
Getting into scoring positions has rarely been Jackson’s main problem – it is his ability to finish chances which has attracted scrutiny.
During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG in 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the following campaign.
Jackson has converted 18 of 61 big chances in England so far, although Watkins has also missed plenty of high-value opportunities (scoring 24 of 73 since joining Villa in 2020).
Interestingly, last season’s numbers suggest the gap between them was negligible. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances, compared with 18.9% and 43.2% respectively for Watkins.
There is, however, an important caveat.
Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, and Opta says his relatively limited, substitute-heavy sample could make some of his per-90 figures look stronger than they might over a full season.