Labour would beat Reform UK by three per cent in Makerfield if Andy Burnham contests the imminent by-election, a bombshell new analysis of polling data has suggested.
An adjusted forecast by polling aggregator Britain Elects found Labour would secure 39 per cent of the vote in Makerfield if the National Executive Committee gives Mr Burnham the green light to stand in the seat.
The figure, which is down from 45.2 per cent in the 2024 General Election, is significantly higher than Labour’s current vote share in the once-safe seat.
Reform UK received 50 per cent of the vote across eight wards located in the Makerfield constituency in last week’s Local Elections.
Meanwhile, Labour’s support collapsed to just 23 per cent, with the Green Party hoovering up 11 per cent of the vote.
The new research by Britain Elects also suggests Mr Burnham’s inclusion would directly take five points from Reform UK and four per cent from the Green Party.
Mr Burnham’s stint as Greater Manchester Mayor has helped boost his support locally, with two-in-three voters across the city backing him in 2024.
Ben Walker, who co-founded Britain Elects, told GB News: “The ‘Burnham Factor’ in Greater Manchester is there.
“In the North West of England, he does about 20 points better in terms of favourability than he does in the rest of the country.
Andy Burnham has confirmed he’ll run in the Makerfield by-election | GETTY
“To put that in context, Burnham is on about 30 to 40 per cent favourability nationally, and in the North West it is more like 50, 60 per cent.
“He is gold dust among certain parts of the electorate. He is the only Labour figure whom Reform voters don’t out-and-out hate.”
The New Statesman data journalist added: “If he was the Labour candidate, it wouldn’t be the Labour Government versus Reform; it would be Burnham’s Labour versus Reform.”
Mr Farage said: “We look forward to the contest and we will throw absolutely everything at it.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is targeting Makerfield | PA
GB News revealed earlier this week how Reform UK insiders had already been plotting to halt Mr Burnham’s march to No10.
“Given Labour were demolished across the former Red Wall, there are no ‘safe’ Labour seats left,” a senior Reform source told The People’s Channel.
“Andy Burnham and Labour ministers show their contempt for the electorate by thinking they can swap out one of their MPs and crown a new Prime Minister. Voters will teach them a brutal lesson.”
Mr Burnham, who expressed his intention to contest the seat following Josh Simons’s resignation yesterday, did not respond to questions from journalists after he was spotted running near his Cheshire home.
Wes Streeting and Sir Keir Starmer have become increasingly distant amid the Health Secretary’s leadership ambitions | PA
Ilford North MP Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary yesterday, gave Mr Burnham his backing to contest the by-election.
However, allies of Mr Streeting continue to stress that he will stand in a future Labour leadership contest.
Ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who is also considered a potential leadership contender, also publicly called on the NEC to approve of Mr Burnham’s candidacy.
Sir Keir Starmer is not expected to block Mr Burnham from standing in Makerfield.
Andy Burnham is hoping to get the keys to No10
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GETTYMr Burnham had been blocked from contesting the Gorton & Denton by-election in February, which ultimately saw the Green Party win the Greater Manchester seat.
However, voters in Makerfield have expressed concerns about Mr Burnham standing as Labour’s candidate.
One local fumed: “Josh Simons stepping down was a mistake, because people around here voted for Josh Simons as opposed to voting Labour.
“And I think Andy Burnham is very self-entitled, thinking he’s going to come into here and just take the seat, because I don’t think it’ll happen. I think Reform will take it.”