Sir Keir Starmer is bracing for a bruising defeat in the upcoming Gorton & Denton by-election after a key Muslim voting group endorsed the Green Party.
The Muslim Vote, which helped propel Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Ayoub Khan and Iqbal Mohammed into Parliament, last night confirmed it would be urging voters to support Zack Polanski’s candidate.
“Muslim voters, alongside many others in the constituency, will play a decisive role in this by-election,” the campaign group said.
“This moment must result in the defeat of both Labour and Reform through unity behind a single, credible candidate.
“On this occasion, we believe the Green Party offers the strongest opportunity to win, and we urge them to work swiftly with local communities, while calling on all other progressive and independent alternatives to stand aside to give the best chance of delivering a clear break from politics as usual and putting the community first.”
Gorton & Denton, which is the UK’s 23rd most Muslim constituency with 30 per cent of electors identifying as followers of Islam, now looks poised to deal Sir Keir a bloody nose less than 12 months after Labour lost Runcorn & Helsby to Reform UK.
“Realistically, we know that we’re going to lose,” a senior Government source told The Times.
“But it was a question of what was worse: losing a by-election or losing control of Greater Manchester, which would have been a total disaster.”
However, another Labour source insisted Sir Keir is “not writing the seat off” and needed to be “quick out of the blocks” to position Labour as the principal challenger to Reform.
The Green Party is considering deploying its deputy leader, Mothin Ali, as its candidate.
Mr Ali, who was once under investigation by party officials after shouting “Allahu Akbar” following his council election win, has attacked Labour for supporting “genocide” in Gaza.
He has also shared support from the Muslim Vote, which is backing the Greens.
However, Mr Farage admitted Labour’s decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from contesting the seat has boosted Reform UK.
He said: “Burnham would have galvanised the anti-Starmer vote. He’d have pushed the turnout up, and I think it would have been very difficult for us to beat him.
“I’m being absolutely frank about that, we might have come a good second.”
Ex-Health Minister Andrew Gwynne, who first won the Manchester constituency in 2005, was returned as the MP for Denton & Gorton with a majority of 13,413 votes in 2024.
Reform UK finished in second on 5,142, meaning Mr Farage requires a swing roughly the same size as in Runcorn & Helsby to win the seat.
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Latest voting intention shows Reform growth
The latest YouGov voting intention poll shows Reform once again rising, after a couple weeks of stagnation.
According to Sky News, Reform have seen a small resurgence back to 25 per cent, an increase of one percentage point on last week.
It’s Labour who come in second, and have had a resurgence of their own, up to 21 per cent and an increase of two.
It makes for grim reading again for the Tories (17 per cent) and the Greens (16 per cent), who have both suffered a small drop, while the Lib Dems prop up the list with 14 per cent.
BREAKING: Ground rents will be capped at £250 a year for leaseholders, Keir Starmer announces
Ground rents for leaseholders in England and Wales will be limited to £250 a year under wide‑ranging reforms unveiled by the Government.
The plans also include a ban on new leasehold flats and a new right for existing leaseholders to convert to commonhold, aimed at giving homeowners greater control over their buildings.
Announcing the changes in a TikTok video, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said he had “spoken to so many people who say this will make a difference to them worth hundreds of pounds,” adding that easing pressure on household budgets remains crucial as the cost of living continues to dominate concerns nationwide.
The measures will be set out in the draft Leasehold and Commonhold Reform Bill, due to be introduced on Tuesday.
READ THE FULL BREAKING STORY HERE
Date set for crunch by-election after Andy Burnham warns Keir Starmer risks losing safe seat
The Gorton & Denton by-election will take place on February 26 as Labour searches to find its candidate after snubbing Andy Burnham from returning to Westminster.
Voters will likely go to the polls on the last Thursday of February after a writ was moved in the House of Commons for a by-election.
The by-election has to be held between 21 and 27 working days after the writ was moved.
Gorton & Denton will elect a new MP after ex-Health Minister Andrew Gwynne stepped down over health concerns following his suspension from the Labour Party over the WhatsApp group, Trigger Me Timbers.
READ THE FULL STORY HERE
READ IN FULL: The Muslim Vote urges thousands of voters in Denton & Gorton to vote Green
“The blocking of Andy Burnham from standing in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election is yet another example of a Labour Party fearful of even the most basic democratic challenge. It reflects a leadership more concerned with control than with listening to the communities it claims to represent.
“From failing to address the cost of living crisis, to overseeing deteriorating public services, and presiding over the genocide in Gaza, this Labour Party has drifted far from the promise of change.
“It now offers a politics of continuity that leaves many voters feeling unheard, unrepresented, and deeply disillusioned.
“This by-election comes at a moment when Labour is losing trust and support at a pace comparable to the rise of Reform — not because communities are turning to division, but because they are seeking a credible alternative rooted in fairness, accountability, and real change. Gorton and Denton deserves better than a choice between stagnation and scapegoating.
“Muslim voters, alongside many others in the constituency, will play a decisive role in this by-election.
“This moment must result in the defeat of both Labour and Reform through unity behind a single, credible candidate.
“On this occasion, we believe the Green Party offers the strongest opportunity to win, and we urge them to work swiftly with local communities, while calling on all other progressive and independent alternatives to stand aside to give the best chance of delivering a clear break from politics as usual and putting the community first.”