Manchester United have won the most points in the Premier League since caretaker boss Michael Carrick took over in January, so it seems a no-brainer to give him the job on a permanent basis.
But dig a little deeper and the decision is not so obvious as the stats warn that, as brilliant as results have been, they’re unlikely to continue in the long run.
On the surface everything looks hunky-dory under Carrick.
As well as his side taking the most points during his tenure, only Arsenal have a better goal difference, with no team scoring more goals.
United’s attack has been running blisteringly hot under their former midfielder, which is obviously fantastic in the short term, but slightly worrying for the future when it inevitably cools down.
Eight teams have been better at creating chances based on expected goals, but having the best shot conversion rate in the league means United have scored seven more goals than a team historically would from the chances they’ve had – more than any other side.
Looking at attack and defence overall, the only side to have overperformed their xG numbers by more than United since Carrick took charge are Nottingham Forest, who are enjoying their own ‘new manager bounce’ under Vitor Pereira.