A new poll has revealed Labour lost more voters at this year’s local elections to the Green Party than they did to Reform UK, a shock to Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
According to the YouGov poll of 1,173 people, just 46 per cent of 2024 Labour voters stayed with the party earlier this month, with 22 per cent going to Zack Polanski’s party, compared to 16 per cent going to Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats and just six per cent going to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
By contrast, 33 per cent of Conservative 2024 voters went to Reform UK, with 55 per cent sticking with the Tories.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems also kept hold of 55 per cent of their 2024 voters, with 21 per cent going to the Greens.
In a win for both Mr Farage and Mr Polanski, those who voted Reform UK and Green two years ago were much more likely to stick with their respective parties this year.
The poll also revealed what the “top” reason people chose their party on May 7 and how it varied between parties.
According to the poll, the most common reason among voters was the party “best represents my values”, with Green voters feeling Mr Polanski’s party best aligned with their own views (59 per cent). This goes down to 49 per cent for Labour, 42 per cent for Reform UK, 36 per cent for the Conservatives and 31 per cent for the Lib Dems.
However, Reform UK voters were more likely to cite the performance of the national Labour Government (46 per cent) rather than the party best representing their own interests. The most common reason behind why Lib Dems voters chose to vote for Sir Ed’s party was “to stop the party that I dislike”, although it did not specify which party.
Zack Polanski has overseen a massive rise in membership for the Greens
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In England, Reform UK won Sunderland, Thurrock, Essex, and Suffolk off Labour, while the Greens took Hackney, Norwich and Hastings.
The Greens also saw their first two borough mayors elected, with Zoë Garbett winning in Hackney and former Labour councillor Liam Shrivastava seeing off his former party in Lewisham.
Reform UK took Sunderland from Labour, a council containing Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s parliamentary seat, with the insurgent party also ending more than 50 years of Labour rule in Barnsley.
Mr Farage’s party took St Helens council by gaining 31 seats as Labour lost 24.
The polling showed the reason why people chose their parties at 2026
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Polling guru Sir John Curtice suggested it was actually the Greens who were more likely to benefit from the collapse of Labour, rather than Reform UK.
Writing in The Times, Sir John said: ” Labour’s vote has tended to suffer more when the Greens have recorded a strong vote than when Reform have done.
“This suggests that sometimes a flow of votes from Labour to the Greens has enabled Reform to gain a Labour seat, despite Labour pleas for voters to vote tactically to keep Reform out.”
Sir John said Reform still remains in front in terms of votes won, adding many of those who voted for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019 to ” Get Brexit Done” have now switched to Mr Farage’s party.
Nigel Farage has hoovered up much of the 2019 Conservative vote
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A Green spokesman said: “Labour’s attempt to out-Reform Reform has been a spectacular failure, only playing into Nigel Farage’s hands. The public are crying out for the real change the Greens have been campaigning for: rent controls, proper wealth taxes, lower bills, public ownership of water, and an end to support for genocide and illegal wars.
“People in Gorton and Denton saw that the Greens are a viable alternative and can win”
Meanwhile, speaking the morning after the local elections, Mr Farage said: “What’s happened is a truly historic shift in British politics.
“We’ve been so used to thinking about politics in terms of left and right, yet what Reform are able to do is to win in areas that have always been Conservative, but equally, we’re proving in a big way that we could win in areas that Labour has dominated since the end of World War I.”
Sir Keir Starmer has hit out at both Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski
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With Labour votes being squeezed both right and left, Sir Keir has been quick to attack both Mr Farage and Mr Polanski.
Speaking to the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) after the Gorton & Denton by-election, won by Hannah Spencer from the Greens, the Prime Minister told his own backbenchers “politics is changing, and it’s changing decisively”.
He added: “But I believe, and continue to believe, that there is a mainstream majority in this country who neither want Nigel Farage or Zack Polanski as their Prime Minister.”