Labour under Andy Burnham would leapfrog Reform UK, a shock new poll has revealed, but the so-called ‘Burnham bounce’ is wafer thin.
The BMG Research survey, undertaken after Sir Keir Starmer announced he was stepping down on Monday, demonstrates a distinct “Burnham bounce” in voting intention.
Beyond the headline figures, the former Greater Manchester mayor outperforms Nigel Farage across multiple measures of personal qualities and values.
However, researchers urge caution about reading too much into the numbers, describing the advantage as “wafer thin” and noting that neither major party would come close to securing enough seats to govern alone.
With Mr Burnham at the top, Labour’s support rises to 27 per cent, nudging just ahead of Mr Farage’s party for the first time in an extended period.
Jack Curry, pollster at BMG Research, acknowledged a clear “Burnham effect” but stressed significant limitations.
“The caution is that the bounce is wafer-thin,” he told the i Paper. “Burnham’s lead over Reform in that scenario is a single point, and on these numbers, no party is anywhere near a working majority.”
When translated into parliamentary seats, both Labour and Reform would find themselves virtually level, each falling more than 100 short of what they would need to form a government independently.
Andy Burnham’s Labour would leapfrog Reform, a shock new poll has revealed
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“A leadership change would reshuffle the deck, but it would not on its own deal Labour a winning hand,” Mr Curry added.
The polling paints a particularly challenging picture for Mr Farage when voters are asked to compare the two men directly.
“Head to head against Nigel Farage, Burnham leads on every single attribute we tested, from competence and honesty to representing Britain on the world stage,” Mr Curry noted.
On competence, 41 per cent of respondents favoured Mr Burnham compared with just 25 per cent for the Reform leader.
Similar margins emerged on understanding ordinary voters, with Mr Burnham ahead 41 to 25 per cent.
Nigel Farage has been beaten by Andy Burnham in almost all categories in the new poll
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The former Greater Manchester mayor also commanded substantial leads on being genuine and honest, scoring 40 and 38 per cent respectively against Mr Farage’s 25 and 23 per cent.
Perhaps most strikingly, Mr Burnham even won the so-called pint test, with 34 per cent preferring to share a drink with him versus 28 per cent for Mr Farage.
The BMG Research findings also highlight a tactical voting dynamic that could prove problematic for Reform.
Most supporters of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens indicated willingness to vote strategically, whereas Conservative and Reform backers showed less inclination to do so.
Recent by-elections have demonstrated this pattern in action.
Mr Burnham’s commanding victory in Makerfield last week, where he secured more votes than all opposing candidates combined, was attributed partly to tactical voting as Liberal Democrat and Green support collapsed to block Reform.
Similar dynamics saw Reform lose to the Greens in Gorton and Denton, and to Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly.
Yet Mr Curry warned that Mr Burnham would inherit a restless party, noting that a third of Labour’s 2024 voters want an early general election regardless of who becomes leader.