Sir Keir Starmer is bracing for a succession of ministerial departures following next week’s Makerfield by-election, with the Greater Manchester mayor currently positioned to secure the seat and mount a challenge for the Labour leadership.
Research conducted by the party’s campaign operation in the northwest constituency indicates Mr Burnham is set to triumph over Reform whilst simultaneously delivering a humiliating blow to Nigel Farage’s party.
The vote takes place on Thursday, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday, June 19.
A series of cabinet and junior ministers are anticipated to resign in the aftermath, drawing parallels with the wave of departures that ultimately compelled Boris Johnson to relinquish the premiership.
One Labour source told The Independent: “The data shows the biggest reason people are voting for Andy is to get rid of Starmer.”
The Greater Manchester mayor has begun assembling his prospective Government team and is canvassing potential appointees for senior positions, anticipating his elevation to both party leader and Prime Minister upon entering the Commons.
Louise Haigh and deputy leader Lucy Powell feature amongst those being lined up for cabinet posts in a planned administration.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy and Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds are understood to be earmarked for dismissal under Mr Burnham’s prospective leadership, with allies viewing Mr Reynolds as instrumental in obstructing the mayor’s previous parliamentary comeback during the Gorton and Denton by-election.
A series of cabinet and junior ministers are anticipated to resign in the aftermath of the by-election this coming week
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Mr Burnham has pledged to lift the suspension of MP Karl Turner, who has been critical of Mr Lammy’s jury trial reforms.
Ms Powell is reportedly providing reassurance to ministers and backbenchers behind the scenes, whilst former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner works to calm anxieties regarding the potential transition.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is now under resignation watch, having already told the Prime Minister alongside Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood he should step aside.
Numerous ministers at various Government levels are contemplating departure, though no resignations are anticipated until after the declaration of the Makerfield result in the early hours of Friday morning.
Andy Burnham has in recent days announced a number of policies
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Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson, a Burnham supporter, said: “Not looking good for Starmer, everyone waiting until next week, he needs to just stand down.”
One Labour MP observed: “There will be nothing until Thursday, but then maybe more pressure on the PM to do a timetable to go.”
A third remarked: “It’s the end of days for Starmer. We are just counting them down.”
However, scepticism emerged from one Burnham ally regarding the resignation strategy. The MP commented: “Those that haven’t jumped will probably fancy keeping their pay and perks til the autumn. They have no other honour, so why would they? It is possible a few would go after the result like rats from a sinking ship to curry favour with Burnham.”
In recent days, Mr Burnham has set out an extensive policy agenda centred on redirecting resources from welfare to defence whilst pursuing significant state intervention in utilities.
The mayor declared he was “not squeamish” about reducing the benefits bill to finance increased military expenditure, emphasising a preventative approach focused on employment support rather than what he termed “crude” short-term reductions.
He has signalled that nationalising water companies, including Thames Water, remains “absolutely an option” should he reach Downing Street, alongside a restructure of energy grid operations.
Additional proposals include implementing a one-year freeze on private sector rents and introducing a national cap on bus fares to address cost-of-living pressures.
Mr Burnham has also advocated reforming Government procurement to ensure contracts prioritise domestic employment and social value, citing his experience securing bus-building contracts for Falkirk and Ballymena whilst serving as Greater Manchester mayor.