As the future of Sir Keir Starmer hangs in the balance, the Westminister commentariat have been asking who could replace him, with former Labour leader and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s name thrown into the mix.
The Doncaster North MP, who previously led the party from September 2010 to May 2015, became Energy and Net Zero Secretary when Labour returned to power in July 2024.
Oil and gas development
One of the key disagreements between Mr Miliband and Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been the use of the UK’s North Sea energy reserves.
Under a Chancellor Miliband, there seems no prospect of any North Sea development whatsoever.
Even the Jackdaw and Rosebank sites, currently the subject of re-applications, look like being vetoed.
Production had been scheduled to begin at Jackdaw this year and at Rosebank in 2026/27.
When grilled on the issue by Sky News, he refused to be drawn on whether he would allow the Jackdaw gas field and Rosebank oil field to go ahead, after their initial approval was withdrawn following a Supreme Court ruling on fossil fuel developments.
He said: “We’ve got a proper planning process, and as you would expect, we’re going to look at all of the facts, which is what I’ve got to do as a decision maker, and come to a view.”
No plans to secure UK security outside ‘renewables’
Suggestions of the tax burden being eased for oil and gas companies will certainly be given no consideration, and any prospect of ‘de-linking’ world prices with UK prices would seem to be off the agenda.
Therefore, households will continue to be at the mercy of the Iran War when it comes to bills.
The lack of major tax revenues from home-grown oil and gas exploration will impact the Chancellor’s ability to pay for any potential rising bills.
The “price cap”, is a limit on what suppliers can charge domestic consumers per kilowatt hour of energy used, and on the standing charge.
Under the Ofgen definition, a customer with a Typical Domestic Consumption Value uses 2,700kWh pa for electricity and 11,500kWh pa for gas.
The chart showing the jump in domestic energy bills
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Former Conservative minister Lord Redwood said: “The last thing we need is Mr Miliband as PM or Chancellor.
“It is his largely unrestrained net zero policies that have led to the disastrous closure of two oil refineries, just when we need their home-produced jet fuel.
“His refusal to allow us to get more of our own oil and gas out leaves us short of these necessities when the Gulf is closed and world deliveries are well down.
“His sky-high energy taxes just drive away investment, jobs and business, leading to less overall tax collected as jobs and orders flee our shore.
“As the Gulf stays closed, we need a Chancellor and PM willing to override net zero madness and do deals with the oil, gas and refining industry to increase home production and improve our security of supply. Importing everything that needs energy is self-harm on a huge scale.”
Cost of Government borrowing
The cost of government borrowing has been much dearer all last year and this year so far, than it was under the much maligned period of Liz Truss, when she was castigated by the current Government.
It seems improbable he will reduce benefit spending or any public expenditure.
Bond markets will then react fast and the already-high levels of payments on the country’s debt will increase at the same time as the debt itself increases.
Below we show spending on interest payments to date, with the OBR’s prediction over the next five years.
A chart showing central government debt interest
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Jobless young people
Jobless young people are battling a series of issues including rising ill-health, and investment is needed to help them get into education and work, a think tank has said.
A report by the Resolution Foundation said the rate of 18 to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training (Neets) was the third highest in Europe, after Italy and Lithuania.
The think tank said a weak labour market, a lack of vocational education and a benefits system which did not support young people to get into work were also big problems.
In the report published on Tuesday, it said the number of 18 to 24-year-olds on benefits with no requirements to engage with the Department for Work and Pensions had increased from 160,000 to 300,000 since 2019.
Young people in the UK were more likely to leave education earlier than their continental peers, where there were more vocational education opportunities.
Some 22 per cent of young people in the UK are in vocational education, compared to 35 per cent in the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany, the report said.
The latest chart showing those that are ‘economically inactive’
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The current welfare bill is rising
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Soaring welfare bill
Facts4EU has looked at data from the Department for Work & Pensions as well as from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) although we have yet to see an accurate OBR forecast.
The OBR forecast that this will rise further, based on the Government’s current policies, to more than £400bn in 2030/31, just five years from now.
However, economic forecasters often underestimate the debt build-up near to an election so we expect this to increase.
Any actions taken will be unsustainable based on the current poor economic growth and will have to be borrowed, at ever-increasing rates, further adding to the annual bill.
If taxes don’t rise the markets will respond even more strongly.
Lord Redwood said: “Mr Miliband’s extreme green policies lead to the rolling collapse of petro-chemicals, plastics, ceramics, fibreglass, steel and many other energy using businesses. Worklessness soars and young people are left without jobs.
“If he comes to have more influence after bad election results for Sir Keir Starmer, we should expect more spending and borrowing.
“He will also want to spend more on his green dreams in the vain hope there can be more green jobs.
“As the Gulf stays closed, we need a Chancellor and PM willing to override net zero madness and do deals with the oil, gas and refining industry to increase home production and improve our security of supply.
“Importing everything that needs energy is self-harm on a huge scale.”