ENGLAND
Even though four teams have been knocked out this week, it is all but certain that the Premier League will get an extra place.
England (23.847) already have a coefficient score pretty much the same as last season’s second-placed country (Spain, 23.892).
Nothing should be completely taken for granted, as England seemed destined to get an EPS slot in 2023-24 only to suffer a terrible set of results in the quarter-finals.
But it is going to take another very bad night on Thursday for there to be any real jeopardy.
It also helps that Bayern Munich will face Real Madrid in the quarter-finals, meaning one of England’s closest rivals will lose a team. And Barcelona must play Atletico Madrid, too.
As a picture of how far England are ahead, German and Spanish sides are effectively 18 victories behind. And Serie A can no longer catch the Premier League.
SPAIN
The Spanish league is in second place and now has more teams left in Europe (six) than any other league.
It will be a close battle as each win is worth less to the coefficient than for Germany.
The Champions League meeting between Bayern and Real Madrid could prove crucial in the race.
Spain will also be hit by their teams meeting each other.
Atletico and Barcelona will meet in the Champions League quarter-finals.
In the Europa League, Celta Vigo and Real Betis are on a collision course in the semi-finals.
GERMANY
The Bundesliga has only Bayern left active in the Champions League, and it will need a strong turnaround of results on Thursday.
Of the three German teams in action in the Europa League and Conference League, not one goes into their second leg with a lead. They all need positive results to be able to challenge Spain.
PORTUGAL
It seemed like Portugal’s chances of making the top two were effectively over when Santa Clara were knocked out of the Conference League in the qualifying rounds.
But three of their remaining four teams are still active.
However, to be in contention for second all are going to have to go very deep.
ITALY
Serie A has lost four of its seven teams and now only has a slim chance of making second place.
Bologna and Roma face each other in the Europa League last 16, so another team will go out.
At least Fiorentina won in the Conference League.
FRANCE
It has been a disappointing season for Ligue 1 teams, starting with Nice’s failure to make it through Champions League qualifying.
It did not get much better from there for Nice, as they were then eliminated from the Europa League.
France do have four teams still active but seem unlikely to bridge the gap.
POLAND
It will come as a surprise to many to find Poland so high up in the table, and they were in the top two for a while. But Poland no longer have a realistic chance.
All four of the country’s teams have been playing in the Conference League, while more than a third of their coefficient points were picked up in the qualifying rounds.
It would need both of their teams to win every remaining game.
No other country has a mathematical chance of the top two.