The race report from Suzuka actually mentioned that more than half Aston Martin’s deficit to the front was caused by the chassis.
That information came from a very senior and knowledgeable figure over the course of the Japanese Grand Prix weekend.
It also tallies with what other teams are seeing on the GPS data to which all have access, in terms of the cars’ speed on different parts of the track.
The exact split in terms of the losses that can be attributed to car and engine at Aston Martin-Honda is not known, and it’s probably not possible to know, as of course the behaviour of the engine can also have an impact on the cornering performance of the car.
It’s worth adding that, while it’s true that much of the public focus has been on the Honda engine, and especially the severe vibrations that have been causing reliability problems, team principal Adrian Newey has been clear that the car is also lacking.
It’s also the case that it’s not clear where the vibrations are coming from – are they intrinsic to the engine, or is there something about the way the engine is mounted to the chassis that exacerbates them?
In Australia, Newey said that on the chassis side “we’re maybe the fifth best team, so sort of potential Q3 qualifiers on the chassis side, but with the potential to be up front at some point in the season”.
On average over the four qualifying sessions of the first three races, including for the sprint in China, the Aston Martin is 3.6 seconds off the pace.
The fifth fastest team on average are Alpine, at 1.268secs off the pace, followed by Haas at 1.567secs.
So Aston Martin are about 2.3secs off qualifying in the top 10, with the majority down to the chassis and the rest the engine.
In other words, put a Mercedes engine in the car, and it would be about where Alpine or Haas are. Exactly as Newey suggested.
Given the Aston Martin’s troubled birth – effectively starting again when Newey arrived in March last year, a delayed entry into the wind tunnel until April, and a consequent compressed development programme – that sounds entirely feasible.
The car is overweight, and is especially poor in high-speed corners.
The fundamental point, though, is that it doesn’t really matter where exactly the deficit lies between car and engine. Both Aston Martin and Honda are a long way from being competitive, both know that’s the case, and both have a lot of work to do.