The chief inspector of probation for England and Wales has told the the early release of thousands of prisoners could lead to “a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder” because of the demands on probation staff to monitor offenders.
The government is set to release 5,000 offenders from October as part of new laws to create more space in overcrowded prisons.
Probation officers supervise offenders after prison sentences and check they follow the terms of their release, such as sticking to curfews and not taking drugs.
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said “protecting the public is our top priority”, adding it had invested in probation and hiring trainee officers.
But Martin Jones, His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of probation for England and Wales, told the that “ultimately I’m not fully confident that the probation system will be able to cope with this massive work and there’s a risk that things will go wrong”.
“Probation services are already under unprecedented pressure.
“I mean, they’re managing a caseload of 258,000 cases, that’s nearly three times the number that are in our prisons, and obviously the early release scheme will be increasing that pressure considerably.”
On Tuesday, 50 police chiefs signed a letter to the prime minister calling for greater consideration of victims when prisoners have their sentences altered, such as under the early release scheme.
The letter stated: “Families across the country are now facing the distress of learning that offenders may be released earlier than they understood when sentence was passed.”
The police chiefs from Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland also urged Andy Burnham to pursue “every legal option” to prevent the early release of PC Andrew Harper’s killers under the scheme.
Probation officers help former prisoners with housing, employment and access to benefits once in the community, and help protect the public by assessing the risk of further offending.
Their workload will increase substantially when more offenders – some of whom will have been convicted of violent offences – are released months earlier than planned as part of the Sentencing Act.
According to the chief inspector, probation caseload has increased by 8% over the last two years.
Much of that is down to a separate early release scheme which was implemented in 2024 after prisons nearly reached full capacity.
That scheme has led to tens of thousands of offenders being let out sooner.
When asked what risk the additional early releases due to start in the autumn could pose to the public, Jones said “that could be a serious sexual or violent offence or even murder”.
One probation officer told the the upcoming releases had put him and his colleagues into “a state of panic”.
“We can’t cope with this – we’ve been saying that to anybody who will listen.
“At the minute I think it’s pure panic in terms of where we’re at. I don’t understand how there can be this level of pressure put on us.
“The worst that can happen is that things are missed, plans aren’t put into place and we don’t give people the level of service they need and that leads to serious further offences.
“That leads to death under supervision.”
In a statement, an MoJ spokesperson said the department had exceeded its recruitment target for last year, with 1,389 trainee probation officers starting.
The spokesperson said this is “making sure the Probation Service has the resource it needs to keep dangerous offenders under closer surveillance than ever before”.
“The Sentencing Act is restoring order to a prison system left on the brink of collapse, while our record £700m investment in probation and community punishment is ensuring staff have the resources, powers, and technology they need to manage offenders safely in the community,” the spokesperson added.