Conservatives leapfrog Reform UK as top pollster suggests ‘tectonic plates are shifting’ on British right

It is the first time Mrs Badenoch’s party has led on this measure since the pollster began tracking the question in May last year.

Nigel Farage’s party had led the Conservatives by 10 points on the main opposition issue as recently as August, and was 28 points ahead back in May.

Keiran Pedley, the UK director of politics at Ipsos, said: “These findings reflect a political environment that continues to be in flux following Andy Burnham’s arrival as Prime Minister and recent struggles for Reform UK.

“The Burnham bounce looks real, with the public more likely to see Labour as being at least the largest party after the next general election compared to a month ago.

“Meanwhile, in the battle for hearts and minds on the right, the Conservatives continue to make progress.

“Time will tell if this leads to a decisive shift in voter preferences in their direction or if this is merely a low ebb for Reform UK that they recover from.”

A Tory source told the Mail: “Kemi Badenoch and her team are putting in the hard work and taking the fight to this Labour government, unlike Reform who are letting them off the hook.

“The Conservatives are different from the party that lost the last election, and different from Reform. We are the only party that can unite the country behind a common-sense plan to get Britain working again.”

Meanwhile, the mood is much bleaker at Reform HQ, with one source saying: “Senior party figures now believe they could be heading to just 15 per cent in the polls as soon as next month.

“It’s like being on a coach trip to Portugal, but we’ve run out of petrol in Dover.”

In recent months, Reform UK has been hit with an avalanche of scandals as the party comes under increasing scrutiny.

Police investigations into its donations and a fresh racism and sexism scandal followed an undercover sting that exposed offensive language from multiple councillors and candidates.

Mr Farage himself remains under parliamentary investigation over an undeclared £5million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.

Runcorn and Helsby MP Sarah Pochin was caught on camera describing her own party as “so f***ing chauvinistic”, telling an undercover reporter: “S***…they just exclude you if you’re a woman…It’s really tough being a girl with all of this alpha male s*** going on.”

In response, Robert Jenrick, the party’s Treasury spokesman, told the BBC: “That’s not my experience of Reform.”

Meanwhile, Mrs Badenoch’s party conference in Birmingham energised supporters with pledges to abolish inheritance tax on family homes, add 50,000 new prison places, and move young people off benefits and into employment.

Conservative peer Lord Hayward said the poll’s finding could prove huge for the party’s fortunes.

He said: “If, particularly in what we have as a multi-party nation where parties are jockeying to be first or second, it’s quite important that in people’s minds you are the prime opposition to the Government.

“The Tories have got to wait another four to six weeks to be certain that their post-conference poll bounce remains as more than just a bounce.”

Despite this progress, voters remain sceptical about Mrs Badenoch’s path to Downing Street.

The Ipsos data shows that just 32 per cent of respondents consider it likely she will become prime minister, up from 24 per cent a year ago, but still a modest figure.

Mr Farage’s prospects have moved in the opposite direction.

In May, half of those polled thought he would eventually lead the country; that number has now fallen to 33 per cent.

Mr Burnham himself is seen as more likely than not to win the next election, with 43 per cent backing that outcome against 33 per cent who disagree.