Should City and Arsenal win all their remaining five games they will both end on 85 points, meaning goal difference or goals scored could be the determining factor come May.
This is how tight it is – both teams have played the same number of games (33), have the same number of points (70) and their results are identical too – having won 21, drawn seven and lost five of their matches.
The only factor separating the two sides is the number of goals scored, with City netting 66 to Arsenal’s 63.
Such is the topsy-turvy nature of this season’s race, City could find themselves trailing by six points by the time they next play in the league at Everton on Monday, 4 May – if Arsenal beat Newcastle and Fulham during that period.
City have previously scored five or more goals against Burnley in five different Premier League games – the most one side has done against another in the competition – and would have been eyeing up similar before this match.
Although City had 65% possession, a total of 28 shots with an expected goals (xG) of 3.54, they could only muster one goal through Haaland’s winner in the opening five minutes.
“Not many Arsenal players would have expected Burnley to get a result today, but if you are an Arsenal player or fan, you would take a 1-0 loss for Burnley,” former City defender Nedum Onuoha told BBC Radio 5 Live.
“Arsenal play Burnley in a few weeks and they will probably not be as wasteful with their chances as City, with so much on the line. Before you know it City are chasing Arsenal. I don’t think psychologically it matters that much.
“Now they have played each other, there is no longer this talk about the title decider in April. You have your five games, they have their five games. If you do well enough and win your games, the league title could very much be Arsenal’s.
“They have to back themselves. The fact this only finished 1-0 to City when they had 28 shots, maybe this is the boost they need to turn their form around.”
Former Premier League goalkeeper Tim Krul added: “Arsenal have been so close the last few years, I think we all half want them to get it. But you can’t rule out Manchester City.
“My money would be on City, just with the experience. They are serial winners with the best manager in the world looking after them. You can’t not back them.”