A leading financial analyst has outlined how war in Iran could impact your wallet as tensions with the US reach breaking point.
Paul Auslander, the president of SeaBridge Private Wealth, spoke to GB News as the clock ticked on Donald Trump’s deadline with Tehran.
Mr Auslander admitted that recent events in the Middle East have made him “nervous” for the market – and told Britons what they might expect from a potential conflict.
“I’m hoping that the negotiations are fruitful and that they do come up with some kind of plan without having military action. But if it does, I’m nervous about that,” he said.
“In an all-out-war, the US certainly is way stronger and capable of defending itself against Iran. But Iran is capable of causing a lot of trouble, and that’s a regime that’s desperate.”
Mr Auslander said the most obvious market to be affected by military action would be oil.
Around a fifth of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran blocked for the first time in decades just days ago.
Paul Auslander, the former chairman of the US-based Financial Planning Association, outlined his assessment on Iran to GB News
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Paul AuslanderPermanently blocking the waterway “will cause oil prices to rise, certainly in Europe, certainly in England”, he said.
“In fact, we’re seeing some of that indication happening now. I think it also adds a degree of volatility to an already volatile market.”
If Iran gets “marginalised or neutralised to some degree”, its oil-producing rivals in the region might move to ramp up their production, Mr Auslander said.
That may stabilise prices, “but any time you have a shock like that, it spikes the market – and prices will go up”, he added.
“So the question is how far and for how long?”
A US Air Force plane, pictured refuelling in Israel as tensions between the US and Iran rise
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GETTY
Mr Auslander also believes the market is more unpredictable than it was during Middle Eastern conflicts in recent history – and gave two reasons why.
The first: Mr Auslander said there was “so much more firepower, literal firepower, from one little vehicle than you had 10, 15 [years ago], even when the Iraq conflict came around”.
He added: “Number two, I think I was most struck by how vicious the Iranian regime was against their protesters in the last few months.
“That was a reaction that was shocking to me. That was Nazi Germany-like, killing people brutally and in broad daylight and in front of press, in front of cameras.”
Protests in Iran were ‘Nazi Germany-like’, Mr Auslander said
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GETTYWith an unpredictable market in mind, the financial analyst issued a direct message to GB News readers and viewers as to how they may best protect themselves from volatility.
“This is a time when asset allocation really is important,” he said.
“Someone’s risk tolerance should be measured very carefully. If you are concerned about any drops in the market where you need that money soon, I would be lightening up on equities for sure.
“I think that’s what happens in this marketplace. You get a run towards safe haven assets. I think that’s the reason we’ve seen gold prices going up, silver prices going up.
“We’ve been very cautious over the last six to eight months because while we didn’t know what was going to happen.
“It did feel a little uncertain. It felt a little pricey. So people have been ratcheting down their risk.”
His final advice to people was to “batten down the hatches” if needed.
Britons should ‘batten down the hatches’ if needed, Mr Auslander said
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REUTERS
“If you have an excessive amount of debt and you’re carrying a little bit extra in your money market fund, pay down some of that debt.”
Mr Auslander said Britons should evaluate their portfolio and make sure they are not overexposed to equity markets.
Adding to market volatility is Mr Trump’s tariffs, which have been so far set at 10 per cent – despite the President’s declaration they would be set at 15 per cent.
He admitted that while it remains uncertain what the long-term effect of the tariffs would be, “markets on Monday indicated that they didn’t like the uncertainty” over the announced change.
He also hinted at a quadruple of potential investment winners if war broke out.
Mr Auslander named US trio Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and France’s Dassault as suppliers which will receive orders for “years to come”.
Pressure has built on Britain to hike its defence spending too.
And Mr Auslander said while Mr Trump had been “very effective” at encouraging Nato and Europe to invest more in defence, “more has to be done”.
“When you have a situation like you have in Russia where they feel they have the obligation to go into another country and try to take them over, you have to recognize that for what it is,” he said.
Pressure has built on Britain to hike its defence spending
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PADespite the market turbulence, Mr Auslander said he was optimistic for the future.
The financial adviser said: “I’d remind folks that I’m old enough to remember many crises over the last 40, 50 years. And we figure out a way to survive and we figure out a way to prosper.
“So you see these things happen in real time, and when you’re looking at it on a day-to-day basis, it looks like the world’s coming to an end.
“But in fact, it’s just one more hurdle that we’ve done in our society, in your society, in Europe’s society, in Asia’s society. And you get through it at some point. Cooler minds prevail.
“And I keep wishing for that and hoping for that every day. And I’ve seen it play out. So I’m going to take the position that it’s going to happen again.”