Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has insisted that warnings of a mass exodus from private schools have not materialised, 18 months after Labour introduced VAT on independent school fees.
“The predicted exodus from private schools simply hasn’t happened, and today’s data proves it,” Ms Phillipson said.
She added: “Critics warned state schools would be swamped with new pupils. They were wrong.”
Fresh admissions data for England show no significant increase in applications to state schools following the introduction of VAT on private school fees in January 2025.
Nearly 85 per cent of families secured their first-choice secondary school place, a higher proportion than in both 2024 and 2025.
Figures also show application numbers fell in the London boroughs of Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington and Chelsea, both of which have relatively large private school populations.
However, separate pupil enrolment figures show independent schools have experienced a notable decline in pupil numbers since the policy came into force.
Since the introduction of the 20 per cent VAT charge, private schools have lost 33,231 pupils, representing a 5.6 per cent fall compared with a 1.6 per cent decline across the state sector over the same period.
Bridget Phillipson says private school exodus did not happen despite 33,000 fewer pupils
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During the 2025-26 academic year alone, independent school enrolment fell by 22,222 pupils, a decline of 3.8 per cent.
That compared with a 1.1 per cent reduction in pupil numbers across the state sector.
The number of secondary-age pupils attending private schools fell by 2.6 per cent compared with the previous year, while state secondary school numbers increased slightly.
At the primary level, independent schools recorded a 4.9 per cent decline in pupil numbers, compared with a 2 per cent fall in state primary schools.
Private school pupil numbers hit decade low amid VAT hike
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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had previously forecast that pupil numbers in the independent sector would decline by around 6 per cent over the longer term.
Julie Robinson, chief executive of the Independent Schools Council, said: “Behind these figures are families facing difficult financial decisions and schools working hard to preserve the opportunities, expertise and support that parents value.”
She added: “While independent schools remain resilient, these trends demonstrate that policy decisions can have real consequences for families’ educational choices.”
Shadow education secretary Laura Trott criticised the policy, accusing the Government of pursuing what she described as a “vindictive ideology”.
Ms Trott said: “Labour promised that taxing education would fund 6,500 new teachers. Instead, we now have 1,900 fewer teachers and about 30,000 fewer pupils in independent schools, placing additional pressure on already stretched state schools.”
Ministers have defended the policy, pointing to revised revenue forecasts which exceed initial estimates.
The Department for Education said VAT on private school fees is now expected to raise £1.8billion a year by 2029-30.
Sam Freedman, a former adviser to Michael Gove at the Department for Education, described the fall in pupil numbers as “hardly catastrophic” and said it remained well below some of the more pessimistic forecasts.
Mr Freedman suggested many independent schools had absorbed some of the additional tax burden by limiting fee increases, which could allow pupil numbers to recover over time.
Experts have also cautioned that wider demographic trends, including Britain’s declining birth rate and post-Brexit population changes, may have influenced the figures.
Primary school pupil numbers have been declining since the 2018-19 academic year, before VAT was introduced on private school fees.