The Makerfield by-election will provide meaty fare for political commentators, analysts and students for a long time to come. It joins Orpington, Crosby and Bradford West in the hall of by-election fame.
From the outset, it was seen as a contest between Labour and Reform, the latter’s chances possibly being diluted by the presence of Restore.
That proved a correct prophecy, but the individual components of the decisions facing the electorate produced answers a lot less certain.
Burnham was a popular mayor, but his party is experiencing record unpopularity. Restore has its followers, but would they willingly sacrifice the only chance of victory on the right by withholding their vote from Reform?
The unique feature of this by-election was that it provided Labour voters with a clear chance of getting rid of Starmer and thus the damage that he is doing to the party.
Against that, some voters may have felt they were being used to further Burnham’s own personal ambition of becoming leader. Which sentiment would prevail?
Let us begin with Restore. It is no long-term threat to Reform and indeed is not a national party in any true sense of the word.
It has only a fraction of Reform’s showing in national opinion polls and did not even contest the local council elections this year.
Manifestly, however, it can be a destructive force in by-elections.
On this occasion, it would not have mattered if every single voter for Restore had voted Reform instead, but it is easy to foresee a situation where they hold the balance between Reform and another party.
In such situations, it is the price that the right may have to pay for the private war that Rupert Lowe is waging against Nigel Farage, and it can bring comfort to none but the traditional parties.
Towards the end of the campaign, both the polls and the bookies were predicting a clear Burnham win.
This may have encouraged some voters to give their vote to Restore, as they did not think it would deprive Reform of victory.
Had the prediction been that it was far too close to call, Restore’s vote may have fallen.
Meanwhile, in Scotland, where by-elections were so little mentioned that the electorate elsewhere could hardly have been aware of them, the Tories and SNP prevailed.
The Tories could not even save their deposit in Makerfield but were able to steamroll to victory in Aberdeen after both Labour and Reform opted to focus efforts on the battle to get Andy Burnham into Westminster.
The national consequences will rumble on.
We can expect an early bid from Burnham to replace Starmer, and it still looks unlikely that the latter will fall on his sword.
We will therefore have all the uncertainty and chaos of a leadership election, which has to follow the usual rules and procedures.
Whenever that happens, the country itself suffers because everything enters a state of limbo.
The Civil Service feels hesitant about implementing policies, which may change in the immediate future, and so very little gets done.
That is hardly a healthy prospect for a Britain suffering on multiple fronts.

