Andy Burnham has been handed a major Makerfield by-election boost after Restore Britain splintered the right-wing vote, new polling has revealed.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester is currently polling at 35 per cent, down eight percentage points from previous polling.
Nigel Farage’s party has fallen behind its previous 40 per cent, dropping down to 24 per cent.
Meanwhile, Restore Britain continues to gain ground, at 13 per cent – almost doubling its support, according to leaked Labour data shared with the i Paper.
The new data suggests that Rupert Lowe’s party is splitting the right-wing vote in the Greater Manchester constituency, widening the gap between Mr Burnham and Reform’s Robert Kenyon in what was previously described as “two horse race”.
However, Reform sources have questioned the survey’s authenticity into question, describing it as “disinformation” spread by Labour and its supporters.
A Reform spokesman said: “This ‘data’ from iNews comes without transparency, has no published tables and is complete hearsay. Their reporting is an attempt to directly influence the election.”
The upcoming by-election will take place next Thursday.
Nigel Farage spoke to Makerfield voters a week before the crunch contest
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Mr Burnham has been accused of using his Makerfield candidacy as a “stepping stone” to Westminster amid his widely touted plans to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership if he were to win.
Mr Lowe, who represents the constituency of Great Yarmouth, established Restore Britain back in February after being ousted from Reform UK.
Since its founding, it has received the backing of individuals, including tech billionaire Elon Musk.
After recent polling suggested Restore was winning over around one-in-four 2024 Reform UK voters, Mr Lowe told the Telegraph the new data mirrored “what we’re seeing on the ground”.
Latest polling for Makerfield stands Mr Burnham in good stead
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He added: “On the split, that framing assumes Restore Britain supporters would otherwise back Reform. They wouldn’t. We’re drawing from people who’ve given up on every party on offer. That’s not a split, that’s a new coalition.”
Later this evening, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch shut down rumours that she was willing to enter a coalition with Mr Farage’s party.
A previous report claimed that the Tories would settle a pact with Reform to prevent the formation of another left-wing Government.
However, responding this afternoon, the Tory leader said: “This is b******t. What I actually said is we ‘cannot have another left-wing Government.
“But I’m afraid that Reform has quite a lot of left-wing ideas. They want more benefits. They want nationalisation’.
“I then said on ‘deals, non-aggression pacts and so on… I’m just saying no. It’s just no, no, no, no, no, no.'”
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has also declared that Restore Britain was making electoral success “much more difficult” for Mr Farage’s party.
More widely, he said that Makerfield was “on an absolute knife-edge” and claimed that Restore Britain’s “intervention” was “definitely good news” for Mr Burnham.