Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is under pressure to decide whether he will seek to return to Westminster, after an MP announced he was standing down, triggering a by-election.
Ex-Labour mininster Andrew Gwynne has said he is resigning as an MP in Greater Manchester after suffering “significant ill health” and being advised by his GP not to return to work.
It paves a path for Burnham to contest the by-election in the constituency and potentially mount a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, should he become an MP.
The has been told that some of Sir Keir’s supporters on Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) would seek to stop Burnham from standing.
Burnham does not have to decide straight away if he wants to throw his hat into the ring, as Gwynne has yet to formally resign his seat but he is likely to face mounting questions about whether he intends to go for it or not.
If he does decide to seek selection he is likely to face competition from other Labour figures and former MPs who have their eye on the seat.
As a sitting mayor, he would also face the added complication of needing the approval of the NEC, under Labour Party rules.
NEC sources told the the party is keen to hold the by-election as quickly as possible, before the local elections in May, and expect Gwynne to officially stand down soon.
They said they expected to have a candidate by the end of next week so they can start campaigning.
Several Labour sources said they expected the committee to object on the grounds that Burnham standing for Parliament would in turn trigger an election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, which would be seen as a drain on party funds as well as politically risky.
It is also possible that the NEC would insist that there should be an all-women shortlist of possible Labour candidates for a by-election because the majority of the party’s MPs are currently men.
One NEC source said allowing Burnham to stand as a candidate would be “the most insane scenario”.
They added: “Just because he’s famous and popular he has to go through the same due diligence process. We would not allow any ordinary member to run in a by-election who has criticised the PM and the chancellor.”
But others in the party questioned whether, if the NEC blocked Burnham from standing, his allies among Labour MPs could force party officials to overturn that decision.
Opinion among Labour MPs is divided over whether Burnham should come back to the Commons.
Jo White, the leader of the Red Wall group of Labour MPs, said the party leadership should “let the North decide” who their candidate should be for the Gorton and Denton by-election.
“A London stitch up will be a disaster for Labour,” White posted on X.
One senior Labour MP, who did not want to be named, told the : “He [Burnham] is literally our only hope of retaining the seat so if they block him it’s a tacit acceptance that we are handing it to Reform.”
Another pro-Burnham Labour MP said: “I would personally like to see him run… I think it would be extremely foolish to block him.”
Graham Stringer, the MP for Blackley and Middleton South in Greater Manchester, said Burnham was “entitled to be ambitious but this isn’t the right opportunity”.
He said even if Burnham did become the candidate, he would not be guaranteed of victory in Gorton and Denton.
“As a sitting Manchester MP, I don’t want to leave the back door open to Reform to have a go at getting the mayoralty of Greater Manchester,” Stringer said.
“I think it’s very high-risk. By-elections are a nightmare for any candidates standing on behalf of a sitting government. I don’t think Andy should take that risk.”
Another Labour MP who is supportive of the prime minister said: “I think it’s outrageous and ludicrous that he could contemplate coming back to Parliament with the implied intent to challenge Starmer for the leadership. It’s wrong on so many levels.
“A by-election, without somebody like that standing, would be incredibly destabilising for the Labour government and the country.”
Health Minister Stephen Kinnock told Breakfast that Burnham was “an incredibly talented and effective leader as the Mayor of Greater Manchester”.
He said picking a candidate “will be like any other selection process” and that the “rules and procedures will be set out in due course”.
The has asked Burnham for an interview but he has not yet commented on whether he will apply to be Labour’s candidate in the by-election in Gorton and Denton.
Speaking on Thursday, he said people “shouldn’t rush to conclusions”, and while he insisted he was “very focused on my role as mayor”, he did not rule out an attempt to return to Westminster.
Sir Keir has not commented on whether Burnham should stand, saying the NEC would set out the process for choosing a candidate, adding the mayor was “doing an excellent job” in Manchester.
One well-placed source has suggested that blocking Burnham would not be without political pain but the risk of a leadership contest would be worse.
If selected as Labour’s candidate, he would still have to win a by-election in Gorton and Denton at a time when the party’s popularity is low – although recent polling suggests Labour could hold on to the seat.
In the 2024 general election, Gwynne won with 18,000 votes. The Reform UK candidate came second securing 5,000 votes, just ahead of the Greens who picked up 4,810 votes.
Burnham caused uproar ahead of Labour’s party conference last year when he said many Labour MPs had urged him to return to the House of Commons and challenge Sir Keir for power.
Burnham – a former cabinet minister who has twice stood for the Labour leadership without success – has previously not denied he could challenge Sir Keir, saying: “I’m not going to rule out what might or might not happen in the future.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said: “This by-election is by no means a certainty for Labour, the left-wing greens will split their vote and we will be the challenger. We will give it our all.”
Liberal Democrat Cabinet Office Spokesperson Lisa Smart said: “People in Gorton and Denton and across the country deserve so much better than this endless soap opera.
A Green Party spokesperson said they were “prepped and ready to go for any future by-election”.
“We were deadly serious when we said we are not here to be disappointed with Labour but we are here to replace them.”
There has been speculation that Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, could stand as a candidate.
Polanski has roots in Greater Manchester but has lived in London for a number of years, which may make it unlikely that he will throw his hat in the ring.