As a week of chaos draws to a close, the Prime Minister is a dead man walking. The only question now is whether he goes smoothly with an orderly transition, or messily with a chaotic bloodletting and open civil war ripping through his party.
While Labour’s National Executive Committee has yet to decide if Andy Burnham will be shortlisted to become the party’s candidate in the Makerfield by-election, I am told a decision from Labour’s ruling body is likely to be taken on Sunday or Monday.
It is worth pausing to say I have heard that the vote is on a “knife-edge”. I’m told by sources close to the decision-making body that “everyone is wavering”.
While Number 10 is briefing that the Prime Minister is comfortable with shortlisting Burnham, that’s not to say the whole of the nine-member officer committee agrees. “I don’t think any of us are taking notice of what [Number 10] are saying”, one person in the know tells me.
Speaking with Labour advisors and insiders last night, it is clear that there is now a hope for a ‘best-case scenario’ through this mess for the party. It goes a little something like this:
Andy Burnham is selected as Labour’s candidate in Makerfield. Against the odds, he ekes out a win over the Reform machine. The right-wing vote has been divided, and the left unites behind The King in the North.
Triumphantly returning to Parliament after a decade away, Burnham strikes a deal with Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, offering them top jobs in return for supporting his candidacy.
Faced with unified opposition, Keir Starmer agrees to an orderly transition timetable. No one other than Burnham stands in the ensuing contest, and Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister unopposed.
This ‘coronation’ scenario requires everything to go right for Burnham, and every other putative leadership candidate to fall in line behind him. It presents a view of a united party and a smooth transition. This is the best possible outcome
Labour insiders can hope for.
There is, however, an equal and opposite worst-case scenario.
Let us imagine Andy Burnham is selected as Labour’s candidate in Makerfield. He fights the seat with everything the
Labour machine has, but ultimately is defeated by the strong local ‘anti-politician’ candidate put up by Reform.
If Andy Burnham’s coronation crashes and burns, it could destroy the Labour machine – Tom Harwood
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It’s shown that not even Andy ‘King in the North’ Burnham can defeat Reform. Keir Starmer is blamed. Chaos is unleashed once more in the Labour Party. The post-election bloodletting is even more severe than what we saw after the local elections.
Hundreds more MPs demand Starmer resign. Wes Streeting finally declares his candidacy. In response, Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband declare theirs too.
The party devolves into a competitive contest. Candidates tear chunks out of each other, and Labour’s lamentable record in government. Everyone is damaged, and the party sinks deeper in the polls. Whoever wins, the party has lost.
These possible futures represent everything going as well or as badly as possible. Perhaps the real path through will lie somewhere in between.
What is true to say, however, is that if Burnham is selected, Makerfield will be the most consequential single by-election in British political history.
One that will, in one way or another, determine the next Prime Minister of the country. The fireworks have only just begun.