Oil markets are bracing for a dramatic surge when trading resumes on Monday, with US crude forecast to climb nine per cent following joint American and Israeli military action against Iran over the weekend.
Data from broker IG indicates prices could reach more than $73 per barrel in New York, rising from Friday’s close of $67.
Tehran’s announcement on Saturday that it had effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has prompted multiple shipping companies to suspend tanker movements.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said: “The weekend’s US and Israeli strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) have added fresh geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around possible disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Oil prices are projected to surge following the US-Iran conflict
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OPEC+ has responded to the crisis by moving to boost production beyond its original plans, aiming to calm jittery markets and prevent a sustained price shock.
Eight member nations have reached an agreement in principle to increase output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, significantly higher than the 137,000 barrels per day rise initially anticipated, according to Reuters.
By gradually reversing earlier production cuts, OPEC+ is attempting to reassure traders that spare capacity remains available, effectively capping how far prices might climb despite the geopolitical turmoil.
The intervention aims to prevent war-driven uncertainty from triggering a broader energy and inflation crisis for the global economy.
The US-Israel war could cause oil prices to spike across the world’s energy markets
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ReutersInvestors are expected to seek refuge in safe haven assets when markets open, with gold climbing 2.25 per cent to nearly $5,400 an ounce on IG’s weekend trading platform, while silver has gained 3.2 per cent.
The Ftse 100, which reached a record high on Friday and came close to breaching 11,000 for the first time, is projected to fall approximately 0.5 per cent on Monday morning.
Gulf stock markets have already felt the impact, with Saudi Arabia’s index dropping 2.5 per cent, dragged down by financial, industrial and utility stocks, though Saudi Aramco shares rose 2.5 per cent on the back of higher crude prices.
Kuwait’s stock exchange has suspended all trading until further notice, citing the “exceptional circumstances” facing the country.
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Several tanker owners, oil majors, and trading houses have halted crude, fuel, and liquefied natural gas shipments through the strait, according to Reuters. The conflict has pushed up the cost of insuring vessels operating in the region.
Dylan Mortimer, marine hull UK war leader at risk management consultancy Marsh, said: “The primary risks centre on the Persian and Arabian Gulf, particularly the threat of vessel boarding and seizure by Iranian forces and the potential closure of the strait of Hormuz.”
Oman reported on Sunday that an oil tanker registered in Palau came under attack in the strait, leaving four crew members injured.
Barclays analysts have warned crude could hit $80 per barrel if supply disruptions materialise, while RBC analysts noted regional leaders had cautioned Washington that oil above $100 remained “a clear and present danger”.