Labour could be heading for a “Brexit-style split” as rebel MPs opposing the party’s asylum overhaul risk losing nearly half their seats to Reform UK, according to leading pollster Martin Baxter.
Speaking to GB News, the Electoral Calculus founder warned that immigration is now “right up there with the economy” as voters top concern, meaning the Government must act.
But he said a significant number of Labour MPs opposing Shabana Mahmood’s plans are out of step with their local electorates.
Mr Baxter told The People’s Channel: “In terms of voter priority, immigration is right up there with the economy which is normally number one, so doing something on immigration is definitely a must have for any Government.
“Labour is trying to take action, but here we have rebels who are concerned about that.
“Many of these rebels, I think about half, would lose their seats to Reform UK in an election.”
GB News host Martin Daubney said: “The more astonishing thing is that there are 23 of these rebels I think 11 of them, almost half, who would lose their seats to Reform, which goes to show you their constituents are to the right of Shabana Mahmood.
“Yet they’re saying they don’t support Shabana Mahmood. It’s astonishing, they’re out of touch with their electorate.”
Pollster Martin Baxter said that half would lose their seats
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GB NEWS
Mr Baxter agreed: “Sometimes the voters say that politicians don’t say what they really feel.
“I think these politicians really are, because if they were cynical calculators, they might go with it to try and stave Reform off in their seats.
“So I think they’re saying what they really believe, but it’s not necessarily in tune with the British public or their own local electorates.”
Martin pointed out: “So what we have here is what I always think reminds me of the Conservative Party during Brexit, two completely separate parties, politically, ideologically different parties within the same town.”
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The latest poll from Electoral Calculus shows Reform UK surging ahead, putting the party on 31 per cent well ahead of Labour on 22 per cent and the Conservatives trailing on 19 per cent.
In terms of seats, the forecast suggests a dramatic shake-up in Westminster. Reform UK is predicted to secure an outright majority with 377 seats, giving them a 104-seat advantage.
Labour would win just 118 seats, while the Liberal Democrats are projected to take 69.
The figures highlight the scale of the challenge facing both Labour and the Conservatives, with Reform UK positioned to dominate under the latest projections.
Under this scenario, Nigel Farage would become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition.
Even if all the other parties combined forces, they would still fall short of the numbers needed to prevent Mr Farage from talking over No10.
A number of senior Labour cabinet ministers could be in danger of losing their seats to Reform UK under our calculations.
Those facing the biggest risk include Angela Rayner, Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Pat McFadden, Wes Streeting, Jonathan Reynolds, Liz Kendall, John Healey, Heidi Alexander, Hilary Benn, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, and Lucy Powell.