Britain’s leading polling expert Sir John Curtice has revealed that Reform UK stands just 15 seats away from securing an outright parliamentary majority, according to his analysis of new YouGov polling data presented on GB News.
The comprehensive survey indicates Reform would secure 311 MPs if an election occurred today, positioning Nigel Farage’s party tantalisingly close to the 326 seats required for independent governance.
John Curtice has explained why a new poll spells terrible news for the Tories and Labour
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GB NEWS
Sir John Curtice told GB News: “The honest truth is, I would not have been surprised if this exercise showed Reform getting an overall majority. If anything, these figures don’t show momentum but they are probably relatively conservative about Reform’s immediate prospects.”
The multi-level regression and post-stratification poll surveyed over 11,000 respondents, projecting constituency-level outcomes across Britain.
John Curtice spoke to Martin Daubney on GB News
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GB NEWS
The polling data reveals a catastrophic collapse in Labour’s support, with the party experiencing a 14 percentage point decline nationally whilst the Conservatives have dropped seven points across Britain.
Sir John Curtice explained on GB News: “This poll underlines Labour’s support in particular is falling much more heavily in places they are trying to defend.”
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The analysis shows Labour has plummeted by 20 percentage points in constituencies where Reform finished second in the previous election, whilst dropping 18 points where the Greens came second and 16 points in Conservative runner-up seats.
This pattern of concentrated losses in strongholds would see Labour’s parliamentary representation shrink from 411 to just 144 MPs, according to the YouGov projections.
A new mega poll has tipped Nigel Farage for power
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Nigel FarageThe Conservatives face an equally dire scenario, potentially retaining only 45 MPs in what would represent their worst electoral performance since the party’s origins in the 1670s.
Sir John Curtice highlighted striking parallels between Labour’s current trajectory and the Conservative Party’s dramatic decline at the previous general election.
“We need to remember this is the exact pattern of the sharp decline in Conservative support in last year’s general election. Labour is suffering a similar decline, according to the polls,” Sir John Curtice stated on GB News.
The polling expert suggested the projections might actually underestimate Reform’s potential, noting the party had previously reached 30 per cent support following strong performances in May’s English County Council elections.
“I think it’s incorrect, if you take the broader swathe of the polls, to say anyone has great momentum,” he observed, indicating Reform’s position has stabilised at historically high levels rather than continuing to surge.
The political ramifications extend far beyond seat numbers, with prominent cabinet ministers including Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson and Lisa Nandy facing potential defeat according to the constituency projections.
Conservative leadership contenders would fare no better, with Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride all projected to lose their seats.
The Liberal Democrats would emerge as the third-largest party with 78 MPs, whilst the SNP would secure 37 seats, the Greens seven and Plaid Cymru six.
Even a grand coalition combining Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens would fall short of a majority, whilst Reform could theoretically govern with Conservative support despite the Tories’ diminished numbers.