Keir Starmer’s controversial move to give 16-year-olds the right to vote could see Labour flip nine key seats that were tipped to go to Reform UK.
The Prime Minister’s announcement sparked a wave of backlash with both Tory and Reform figures claiming the party was attempting to “rig” future elections in the midst of Labour’s declining support ever since its general election win last year.
Although the Government vehemently denies this accusation, an analysis by The Telegraph found Starmer’s decision could tilt the electoral map in his favour, handing his party 206,000 new voters in both England and Wales.
All told, the move could see Labour win nine seats tipped to turn turquoise blue at the next general election.
Keir Starmer’s controversial move to give 16-year-olds the right to vote could see the party scoop nine seats from Reform
Those seats are: Rochdale, Read West & Mid Berkshire, Worcester, Derby North, Gateshead Central & Wickham, Mid Cheshire, Bournemouth East, Southampton Itchen and Blaydon & Consett (see map above).
Reform’s leader Nigel Farage has vowed to put up a fight, writing on X: “Labour could be in for a shock.”
Driven by the data
In last year’s election, Ipsos polling showed 41 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds gave Labour their vote. This was followed by 19 per cent going to the Greens.
Reform and the Conservatives took home just 13 per cent combined from under 25s.
Applying those figures to the 1.35million potential new voters to be added to the electoral roll, along with adjusting for the 37 per cent turnout from that age group last year, Labour could secure more than 200,000 new voters while the Greens could increase its voter base by around 100,000.
Reform looks to only gain about 40,000 new voters.
Success is far from assured
But, after winning the election last year, Labour has performed poorly in the polls – and Reform has been the prime beneficiary.
Keir Starmer
A YouGov MRP poll, which shows results constituency by constituency, has found Reform could win 271 seats.
It would make it the largest party in the UK, however, 55 short of an overall majority.
The poll found Labour had also lost support in the 18 to 24 age group, but Reform had only maintained its position within that voting bloc.
Conversely, if the new figures were to be applied to the newly announced 16 and 17-year-olds, Reform would take a hit.
Along with those nine seats Labour could snatch from Reform, Farage’s party could also lose three more.
But, the situation remains as volatile as ever with Labour’s continuing fall in the polls and schisms within the party.
It could face pressure from voters electing to side with alternatives, including Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s yet-to-be-named, hard-left political party.
It could see the disgraced ex-Labour leader, Corbyn take supporters away from Starmer.
According to new data from Find Out Now, young voters said they preferred Starmer when asked who would make the best prime minister of the main parties.
The PM is also tipped to lose his seat to Corbyn’s insurgent party.
When they were presented a list of politicians and other influential figures, 12 per cent said they “strongly approve” of Corbyn – ahead of both Starmer and Farage on nine per cent a piece.