Labour’s ‘Burnham bounce’ facing final test with voters ahead of John Healey’s make-or-break Budget

The polling boost has translated into some electoral success, with Labour triumphing over Green Party leader Zack Polanski in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election.

However, the promise of a fresh face in Downing Street, combined with Mr Burnham’s approach to politics, could soon hit a snag.

The Chancellor will deliver his plans for the nation’s finances on October 28, with speculation rife over tax hikes and delayed promises on defence spending.

Ahead of the Budget, Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch warned Mr Healey’s plans could “do as much damage to our country as Rachel Reeves. In fact, it could be even worse.”

She said: “We are being told next week’s Budget is going to be ‘nothing to see here’… That’s Whitehall code for a Budget that tries to do as little as possible in the hope no one notices.”

On Thursday, a week before his address to the Commons, five council seats will be up for grabs nationwide.

It could be Labour’s last chance to capitalise on an unhindered “Burnham bounce” before the Chancellor’s Budget sees reality bite for the Government.

In Wales, Saron in Carmarthenshire will be up for grabs on Thursday.

The seat became available after Labour councillor Peter Cooper died, having represented the ward for more than two decades.

Carmarthenshire council leader Linda Evans described him as “a dedicated public servant who gave many years of service to his community.”

Six candidates are standing in the by-election, including Labour’s Anthony Wyn Jones, who is defending the party’s seat.

Nicholas Craig Davies of Plaid Cymru, Richard Galvin of Reform UK, Craig Griffiths of the Conservatives and Caryl Evelyn Tandy of the Liberal Democrats are also running, alongside independent Owen Jenkins.

In Hertfordshire, Hertford Kingsmead on East Hertfordshire Council will also vote.

The seat became available after Green councillor Vicky Glover-Ward resigned as the council’s executive member for planning and growth.

In her resignation letter, Ms Glover-Ward said she felt “a square peg in the round hole of politics” and pointed to the Government’s new planning rules as the final straw.

Five candidates are standing, including the Greens’ Drew Waller-Downes, who is defending the seat for the party that runs the council alongside the Liberal Democrats.

Rosemary Anne Bolton of the Conservatives, Christopher Edmund Valentine Bush of Reform UK, Elif Nergis Lewis of the Liberal Democrats and Dawn Katherine Anne Newell of Labour are also on the ballot.

In West Yorkshire, Leeds’s Calverley & Farsley will elect a new councillor.

The seat became available after Labour and Co-operative councillor Peter Carlill resigned for health reasons.

Mr Carlill, first elected in 2018 and appointed the council’s executive member for transport and planning in May, called the role “the best job I have ever had.”

Seven candidates are standing, including Kathryn Sara Penny of Labour and the Co-operative, who finished second in the ward in May.

Defending the seat are Amanda Lesley Carter (Conservatives), Craig Gabbitas (Reform UK), Daisy Nikita Gilpin (Green) and Stuart McLeod (Liberal Democrat).

Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party) and Bradley Evan Holmes (Restore Britain) are also running.

Green candidate Ms Gilpin said she was standing to give her neighbours “a reason to feel hopeful”.

In Lincolnshire, Grantham St Wulfram’s on South Kesteven District Council is also up for election.

The seat became available after independent councillor Tim Harrison resigned in July, saying he was stepping down “for personal reasons.”

Mr Harrison also left Grantham Town Council, where he had served as its first chairman.

Six candidates are standing, with independents Wayne Andrew Hasnip and Marie Reid both seeking to hold the seat.

Tim Galsworthy of Labour, Ben Lavender of the Local Conservatives, Andy McKinlay of Reform UK and Ian Paul Simmons of the Green Party complete the field.

In Worcestershire, Hartlebury on Wychavon District Council will elect a new councillor.

Three candidates are standing, including Tony Miller of the Conservatives, who is defending the seat.

Susan Anne Evans of Labour and Jake Richardson of Reform UK are also running.

Reform took a Wychavon seat from the Tories in a by-election in October last year.